Weekly Wrap-Up - June 14th, 2025

Israel/Iran tensions reach boiling point, markets react

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Market Talk

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East hit a boiling point this week, sending the major indexes lower and oil prices surging.

3 Stories Moving the Market

These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.

Israel Strikes Iran in Targeted Military Operation: Markets Rattle Amid Rising War Risk

Israel launched a wave of airstrikes on Iran early Friday morning, targeting top nuclear sites and military figures, including the head of Iran’s armed forces and key nuclear scientists. In retaliation, Iran deployed over 100 drones toward Israeli territory, with fears growing that the conflict could spiral into a broader regional war. Oil prices surged, safe-haven assets jumped, and global equities sold off sharply on the news.

🔑 Key Points

  • Major escalation: Israel struck Iran’s Natanz enrichment facility, missile bases, and killed multiple top officials, including IRGC chief Hossein Salami and nuclear scientist Fereydoun Abbasi-Davani.

  • Iran retaliates: Over 100 drones were launched toward Israel, and Tehran vowed to respond further. No oil infrastructure has been hit yet.

  • Market shock: Oil prices spiked over 6% as Brent climbed past $73, while gold surged to a two-month high. Stocks sank, with the Dow falling 437 points.

  • U.S. response: President Trump confirmed the U.S. was not involved but warned Iran to return to negotiations after it missed his 60-day nuclear deadline.

  • Energy watch: The Strait of Hormuz, which sees 20% of global oil shipments, remains open, but any disruption could force a global supply shock.

👀 What You Need to Know

This is a clear inflection point for markets. While Iran's oil facilities remain intact for now, the scale and precision of the Israeli strikes, combined with Iran’s public threats of further retaliation, have ratcheted up fears of a prolonged military exchange. The fact that the U.S. abstained from participating limits immediate escalation, but volatility in energy and defense sectors is likely to persist.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: Oil prices are now up over 20% since our May 28th note to Edge+ members, where we flagged the potential for a sharp spike due to a mismatch between OPEC+ guidance and real-world output, fragile U.S. shale dynamics, and underappreciated geopolitical risk. That thesis is now playing out.

This is not just about oil. A durable price spike would…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

Walmart and Amazon Are Exploring Issuing Their Own Stablecoins

Walmart, Amazon, and other multinational merchants are exploring stablecoins as a way to bypass the traditional payments ecosystem. If adopted, these crypto-backed tokens could replace a massive portion of cash and card transactions, enabling faster settlement times and cutting billions in annual fees. The shift hinges on the GENIUS Act, legislation that would establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins and is now advancing in Congress.

🔑 Key Points

  • Retailer Moves: Walmart and Amazon are exploring stablecoins to bypass card networks and reduce payment costs.

  • Market Impact: Visa and Mastercard dropped -6% as investors priced in long-term disruption risk.

  • Legislation Watch: The GENIUS Act would unlock stablecoin use with clearer regulatory backing.

  • Adoption Momentum: Shopify added USDC support; Circle gained on rising merchant interest.

  • Consortium Option: Merchants may create a shared stablecoin to avoid launching their own.

👀 What You Need to Know

This could be the beginning of a major disruption in how retail transactions are processed. If Amazon or Walmart introduce stablecoins, it would bypass the entrenched card networks, squeeze banks out of lucrative fee streams, and enable faster, global payments.

📚 Edge-ucation: What is the GENIUS Act?

The GENIUS Act is a bipartisan bill that would create a formal U.S. regulatory framework for stablecoins, which are digital tokens backed 1:1 by dollars or Treasuries. It’s designed to bring trust, compliance, and institutional legitimacy to how stablecoins are issued and used.

  • Legal Clarity: Stablecoins would no longer be treated as securities, removing major regulatory risk for merchants and issuers.

  • Regulated Issuers: Only banks and licensed non-banks could issue payment stablecoins, with strict reserve and audit requirements.

  • Consumer Protection: The bill includes monthly disclosures, bankruptcy safeguards, and clear redemption rules for holders.

  • Global Implications: Foreign-issued stablecoins would be restricted unless they meet U.S. regulatory standards.

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Air India crash: What to know about the first fatal Boeing Dreamliner tragedy

An Air India Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner crashed seconds after takeoff from Ahmedabad, killing 241 of the 242 people on board in what is now the deadliest crash involving the Dreamliner to date. The jet, delivered in 2014, lost altitude less than a minute after takeoff and plunged into a residential area, sparking a fireball. This is the first fatal accident involving a 787 and reignites scrutiny of Boeing’s quality control amid a string of recent safety controversies.

🔑 Key Points

  • Historic loss: This was the first fatal crash of a Boeing 787 and the deadliest aviation disaster in India in years.

  • Failure to climb: The aircraft lost signal within 60 seconds and never cleared 625 feet of altitude.

  • Landing gear anomaly: Footage confirms the gear stayed down after takeoff, raising serious questions about mechanical failure.

  • Backlog exposure: Boeing’s 900+ Dreamliner orders now face sentiment risk as regulators revisit quality control.

  • Reputational drag: The crash reopens safety questions just as Boeing works to certify the 777X and stabilize investor trust.

👀 What You Need to Know

This crash puts Boeing’s safety reputation under fire again at the worst possible moment. Even if investigators rule out a structural cause, the visual of a Dreamliner crashing seconds after takeoff will weigh heavily on regulators, airlines, and the public. Until the black box tells the full story, perception will drive the stock more than fundamentals.

📊 Edge Score: Boeing’s Edge Score clocks in at 42, dragged down by weak financial health and a broken valuation profile. While 3-year EPS growth is modeled at 33%, the company isn’t generating cash, isn’t paying a dividend, and is relying heavily on debt to fund operations.

💪 CMG Strength: The CMG Strength Ratio peaked in early May just below its upper band, a level that has historically marked short-term exhaustion. Since then, strength has been falling steadily, even as price pushed higher. That divergence between momentum and price was a clear tell that buyers were thinning out ahead of the breakdown.

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In Other News

In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

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Edge+ Posts of the Week

We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.

The Edge Report

Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the start of a new month, and the huge week of jobs reports and earnings ahead. See the latest full report here:

Portfolio Update - June

Every month we share a full access look into our portfolios, including holdings, performance, activity and our watchlists for the upcoming month. You can see both of our portfolios here and see what moves we made in June:

Edge Quick Picks

Every month we break down 5 stocks that we believe are attractive from a valuation perspective right now. See the 5 stocks we are buying in June:

Stock Deep Dive - Cisco

Our Deep Dive focused on Cisco this week. We not only broke down the financials of one of the largest networking companies in the world, but we also shared our valuation models, price targets for 2025, and put the stock through our Edge Scoring System. You can see the full analysis here:

Earnings Recap

Every week during earnings season is extremely busy for us here at the Edge as we dive into over 100 reports and provide our members with top tier breakdowns and insights. This week we saw earnings from Oracle and Adobe. See this week’s recap:

The Week Ahead

It’s a holiday shortened week with Juneteenth on Thursday, and it’s a vacation on the earnings front. But several economic events, including the Fed’s latest rate decision, are sure to move markets.

Earnings Reports

None of the stocks we cover are scheduled to report next week. This a welcome break as we have been pumping out the earnings reports and continuing to push the edge we provide for you guys.

Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

Source: Earnings Whispers

Economic Reports

Next week has several key economic reports which will give us important insights ranging from the consumer, labor market, housing, and manufacturing. But all eyes will be on the Fed rate decision on Wednesday, followed by Powell’s comments.

On the report side, retail sales will be the main one to watch, though jobless claims rising in recent weeks is something to keep an eye on. We also get Empire and Philly manufacturing, building permits, housing starts, and the NAHB housing index.

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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!

Until next time investors!

Mark & Chris

The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure

This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.

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