Weekly Wrap-Up - November 16th, 2024

Inflation concerns and Powell's comments weigh on the market

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Good morning investors!

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Every weekend we publish “The Weekly Wrap-Up” — your ticket to being well informed and staying ahead in the investment game!

This report is designed to help investors of all skill levels break down important stories/topics within the stock market. And best of all, we cut through all of the BS and give you exactly what you need to know in easy to digest, bite sized pieces of content.

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Market Talk

Powell's comments and the inflation reports weighed on markets to end the week. All three major indexes closed deep in the red, though Bitcoin ended the week above $91k.

3 Stories Moving the Market

These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.

Powell says the Fed doesn’t need to be ‘in a hurry’ to reduce interest rates

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the U.S. economy's strength allows policymakers to take a measured approach to lowering interest rates, stating, “The economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates.”

Powell highlighted robust domestic growth, a resilient labor market, and progress in reducing inflation toward the Fed’s 2% target, though he acknowledged recent slight increases in inflation data and noted that the path to achieving the goal could be uneven.

Powell’s cautious stance on rate cuts sent stocks lower and Treasury yields higher, with traders scaling back expectations for a December rate cut.

While the Fed has recently cut rates to recalibrate monetary policy, Powell refrained from committing to a specific path forward, citing the need to balance supporting the labor market and reducing inflation. He also underscored the complexity of moving rates to a neutral level, aiming for a gradual approach to avoid overreacting in either direction.

Meanwhile, the Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet, with no clear end to that process in sight.

👉 EDGE TAKEAWAY: Powell’s cautious remarks on rate cuts, paired with this week’s hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI reports, pressured equities as…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

Warren Buffett Sold Apple and BofA In Q3. He Bought These Stocks:

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway made notable moves in Q3, including new stakes in Domino’s Pizza and Pool Corp, while continuing to sell Apple and Bank of America. The conglomerate also increased its position in Heico while reducing holdings in Ulta Beauty and Nu Holdings and fully exiting Floor & Decor.

Despite the trades, Apple remains one of Berkshire’s largest holdings with 300,000 shares.

Berkshire was a net seller for the eighth consecutive quarter, unloading $34.6 billion in publicly traded stocks while purchasing just $1.5 billion.

Buffett’s cautious approach reflects his preference to wait for the right opportunities, maintaining a $325 billion cash position. As Buffett stated earlier this year, "We only swing at pitches we like."

📚 EDGE-UCATION: We were able to obtain this information via Berkshire’s 13F, so what is a 13F?

A 13F is a quarterly report filed by institutional investment managers with at least $100 million in assets under management with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). The filing, officially known as Form 13F, is required under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and provides transparency into the equity holdings of large investment firms.

Key Points About 13F Filings:

  1. Contents: A 13F lists the manager's portfolio of publicly traded securities, including:

    • Stocks

    • Exchange-traded funds (ETFs)

    • Options

    • Convertible bonds

    • Certain other securities (e.g., American Depositary Receipts, or ADRs).

  2. It does not include short positions, cash holdings, or investments in private equity or hedge funds.

  3. Purpose:

    • Provides insight into the investment strategies and stock preferences of major institutional investors, such as hedge funds, mutual funds, and firms like Berkshire Hathaway.

    • Retail and professional investors use 13Fs to identify trends or mirror the strategies of successful investors like Warren Buffett.

  4. Timing:

    • Managers must file their 13F within 45 days after the end of each quarter, meaning the public gets a delayed view of the portfolio changes.

  5. Limitations:

    • Only shows long positions (not short selling or derivatives not classified as 13F securities).

    • Does not provide the exact timing or prices of trades during the quarter.

In summary, Form 13F offers a snapshot of the holdings of major institutional investors, making it a valuable tool for analyzing market moves and investment strategies of prominent firms.

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Disney stock surges on streaming growth, guidance

Disney delivered solid quarterly results, exceeding analyst expectations with revenue and EPS growth driven by strength in its Entertainment segment and resilient performance across streaming and parks.

The company reported net income of $564 million, down 19% year-over-year, on revenue of $22.57 billion, a 6% increase from the prior year.

Key highlights include a 14% year-over-year growth in Entertainment revenue, supported by hit content like Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine. Disney+ subscribers reached 174 million, a 3% sequential increase, while operating income rose 23% year-over-year to $3.7 billion, despite a 3% increase in operating expenses.

Experiences revenue grew 1%, with domestic parks seeing higher guest spending, though international parks faced challenges. Free cash flow grew 18% year-over-year to $4.0 billion, and the company returned $3.0 billion to shareholders through buybacks.

For fiscal 2025, Disney projects high single-digit EPS growth, $15.0 billion in operating cash flow, and $3.0 billion in share repurchases. Modest subscriber declines are anticipated for Disney+ in Q1, though the company expects double-digit Entertainment segment growth in the first half of the year.

For our Takeaways and Edge Score from the Airbnb report and all of the stocks we cover that reported this week, check out the latest Earnings Recap.

📊 EDGE SCORE: We are giving our Edge+ members a front row seat as we build out the Edge Score Dashboard. Beta testing is set to begin soon and Edge+ members will be the first with access.

Here’s a look at Disney’s Edge Score - valuations are slightly stretched following this move after earnings but growth projections are still pretty strong:

In Other News

In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

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IE+ Posts of the Week

We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.

Edge Report

Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the upcoming inflation data and number of earnings reports. See the latest full report here:

Portfolio Update - November

Every month we share a full access look into our portfolios, including holdings, performance, activity and our watchlists for the upcoming month. You can see both of our portfolios here:

Stock Deep Dive - Uber

Our Deep Dive focused on Uber this week. We not only broke down the financials of the world’s largest ridesharing company, but we also shared our valuation models, price targets for 2024, and put the stock through our new Edge Scoring System. You can see the full analysis here:

Earnings Recap

Every week during earnings season is extremely busy for us here at the Edge as we dive into over 100 reports and provide our members with top tier breakdowns and insights. This week we saw earnings from Home Depot, Alibaba, Disney, and several more. See this week’s recap:

The Week Ahead

Nvidia takes center stage as the largest company by market cap is set to report earnings along with several key retail names.

Earnings Reports

Earnings season carries on and we will once again be busy. Here is the list of names we will be covering next week:

  • Monday 11/18: --

  • Tuesday 11/19: Walmart and Lowe’s

  • Wednesday 11/20: Nvidia, Palo Alto, and Target

  • Thursday 11/21: Deere & Co

  • Friday 11/22: --

Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

Source: Earnings Whispers

Economic Reports

Next week will be all about housing data as several key reports are scheduled to be released.

There will also be initial jobless claims, PMI data, consumer sentiment and a handful of Fed speeches.

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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!

Until next time investors!

Mark & Chris

The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure

This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.

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