Weekly Wrap-Up - June 28th, 2025

Stocks make new all-time highs

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Market Talk

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both made new record highs this week as stocks surged following the ceasefire news in the Middle East.

3 Stories Moving the Market

These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.

U.S.–China Trade ‘Framework’ Offers Truce, But Not Relief

The U.S. and China confirmed a new trade framework on Friday, formalizing terms from a London meeting that aimed to de-escalate tensions after both sides accused the other of breaking a prior Geneva truce. The deal includes China reviewing export licenses for rare earths and the U.S. easing certain tech restrictions, but it excludes tariffs and key enforcement mechanisms.

🔑 Key Points

  • No tariff relief: Despite earlier expectations, the deal skips rollback of tariffs and avoids sectors like semiconductors and pharma.

  • Rare earth optics: China will process export applications, but only magnets were mentioned, with no timeline for broader easing.

  • Deadline drift: Trump’s “90 deals” plan has fizzled; only a U.K. pact is finalized, and Labor Day is now a vague target.

  • Supply chain risk persists: China continues restricting critical exports, while U.S. tech bans and visa limits stay in place.

  • Skepticism rising: Analysts say the deal is more about optics than resolution as both sides still hold leverage through chokepoints.

👀 What You Need to Know

This isn’t a trade resolution, it’s a placeholder. The U.S. and China confirmed a new framework, but it lacks tariff relief, enforcement tools, or timelines. The strategic shift toward export controls signals that future tension will center on technology and supply chain chokepoints, not headline tariffs. Markets had priced in hope for material de-escalation, but with both sides retaining leverage, sector-specific risk remains elevated.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: This agreement doesn’t change the underlying risk. China still…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

Nvidia Breaks Out to All-Time Highs—Again

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 1.76% ) shares surged over 9% this week, closing at a record high and pushing its market cap to $3.8 trillion, overtaking Microsoft and Apple to become the most valuable company in the world. The rally marks a sharp rebound from April’s lows near $94, when fears over Trump’s renewed China tariffs and rising AI competition cast doubt on Nvidia’s dominance. Since its May 28 earnings, shares are up 14% as investors double down on Nvidia’s dominance in AI chips and show a renewed appetite for megacap tech.

🔑 Key Points

  • New Record High: NVDA closed at $157, eclipsing its prior peak from January and gaining over 14% since earnings.

  • China Exposure Cut Off: Tariff restrictions and an export ban cost Nvidia $8B in projected China sales, but it still posted 69% YoY revenue growth in Q1.

  • AI Arms Race Heats Up: Domestic rival Huawei is preparing a chip to challenge Nvidia’s older H100 models, raising competitive pressure in Asia.

  • Demand Holds Up: Questions remain over AI infrastructure ROI, but Nvidia continues to secure massive orders from global hyperscalers.

  • Investor Flows Return: Tech fund inflows hit a 12-month high last week, and Nvidia’s surge has become the centerpiece of the AI-fueled rebound.

👀 What You Need to Know

Plenty of investors expected Nvidia to stumble after losing access to China, but instead, the stock is hitting new highs as if none of it mattered. Even with $8B in revenue evaporating from China, Nvidia hasn’t missed a beat. The company is proving it can outrun geopolitics with scale, execution, and unmatched pricing power in AI infrastructure.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: Nvidia has pushed to new highs even after losing $8B in China sales because the…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

📚 Edge-ucation: What is the GENIUS Act?

The GENIUS Act is a bipartisan bill that would create a formal U.S. regulatory framework for stablecoins, which are digital tokens backed 1:1 by dollars or Treasuries. It’s designed to bring trust, compliance, and institutional legitimacy to how stablecoins are issued and used.

  • Legal Clarity: Stablecoins would no longer be treated as securities, removing major regulatory risk for merchants and issuers.

  • Regulated Issuers: Only banks and licensed non-banks could issue payment stablecoins, with strict reserve and audit requirements.

  • Consumer Protection: The bill includes monthly disclosures, bankruptcy safeguards, and clear redemption rules for holders.

  • Global Implications: Foreign-issued stablecoins would be restricted unless they meet U.S. regulatory standards.

Palantir Goes Nuclear with AI Construction Deal

Palantir $PLTR ( ▼ 9.37% ) has partnered with The Nuclear Company to co-develop NOS, the first AI-powered software for nuclear reactor construction. Built on Palantir’s Foundry platform, NOS aims to eliminate cost overruns and delays, with real-time analytics and regulatory automation. The project aligns with recent U.S. energy policy, targeting a 200x nuclear capacity increase by 2050.

🔑 Key Points

  • AI-powered buildout: NOS turns nuclear construction into a data-driven process using digital twins and real-time data inputs.

  • Smarter logistics: The system tracks materials and parts to prevent shipment errors and costly delays.

  • Regulatory speed: AI agents help process documentation instantly, removing bottlenecks in compliance.

  • Policy tailwind: Trump’s orders call for 400 GW of new nuclear by 2050 and NOS directly targets that need.

  • Warp Speed deployment: Engineers embedded on-site to unify data across construction, supply chain, and safety.

👀 What You Need to Know

This deal puts Palantir at the heart of America’s next energy buildout. With nuclear now a national priority, software like NOS could become critical infrastructure. If even a fraction of the 400 GW goal materializes, PLTR stands to benefit from long-term contracts, deep government integration, and recurring revenue. Execution now matters more than narrative.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: With shares up ~85% YTD, this $100 million, multi-year contract with The Nuclear Company extends Palantir’s footprint into…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

📊 Edge Score: Palantir scores a 51 on our Edge model, driven by an excellent mark in future growth, but held back by a near-uninvestable valuation score. With PLTR up +82% YTD, the setup now depends less on fundamentals and more on sustained narrative momentum around AI, defense, and now nuclear infrastructure.

💪 CMG Strength: The CMG Strength Ratio flashed a sell signal in late May and has been drifting lower ever since, even as PLTR continued to push to fresh highs above $145. That bearish divergence is notable, as it suggests demand is thinning beneath the surface, despite bullish price action.

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In Other News

In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

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Edge+ Posts of the Week

We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.

The Edge Report

Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the tension in the Middle East, the upcoming inflation report and earnings ahead. See the latest full report here:

Earnings Recap

Every week during earnings season is extremely busy for us here at the Edge as we dive into over 100 reports and provide our members with top tier breakdowns and insights. This week we saw earnings from Micron, Nike and FedEx. See this week’s recap:

The Week Ahead

It’s a holiday shortened week with July 4th on Friday, and it’s a vacation on the earnings front. But several economic events, including a major jobs report, are sure to move markets.

Earnings Reports

None of the stocks we cover are scheduled to report next week.

Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

Source: Earnings Whispers

Economic Reports

Next week has several key jobs reports which will give us important insights into the labor market, with the nonfarm payrolls on Thursday guaranteed to be closely watched by both the market and the Fed.

We also get PMI data, initial jobless claims, and a speech from Jerome Powell.

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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!

Until next time investors!

Mark & Chris

The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure

This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.

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