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- The Weekly Wrap-Up - March 16th, 2024
The Weekly Wrap-Up - March 16th, 2024
Inflation is starting to rise again
CMG Venture & Mark Roussin
March 16, 2024
Sponsored by
Good morning investors!
If this is your first time reading, welcome to The Investor’s Edge — a thriving community of more than 14,500 subscribers striving to be better investors with an edge in the market.
Every weekend we publish “The Weekly Wrap-Up” — your ticket to being well informed and staying ahead in the investment game!
This report is designed to help investors of all skill levels break down important stories/topics within the stock market. And best of all, we cut through all of the BS and give you exactly what you need to know in easy to digest, bite sized pieces of content.
Grab your coffee and let’s dive in.
Market Talk
The S&P 500 cooled off at the end of the week and ended slightly lower, while treasury yields and oil surged after the inflation data.
👉 EARNINGS EDGE: Oracle surged nearly 12% after it beat analyst estimates for earnings but slightly missed revenue expectations. Oracle didn’t provide guidance but the reason for the stock’s huge move higher was the CEO saying…upgrade to Edge+ to read the full Earnings Edge.
March Madness, Investor’s Edge Style
While the NCAA tournament is heating up the courts, we're bringing the heat to the stock market. Say goodbye to the traditional bracket challenges because it's time to put your financial prowess to the test!
Introducing "Stock Madness" - where the thrill of stock trading meets the excitement of tournament-style competition. We know you love filling out those basketball brackets, but imagine the rush of selecting winning stocks instead!
Think you have what it takes to pick the next market champion? Whether you're a seasoned trader or just getting started, this is your chance to showcase your stock-picking skills and compete for incredible prizes along the way.
Let the Stock Madness begin!
Here’s a look at the bracket:
Here are the rules to be eligible:
You must:
Be subscribed to The Investor’s Edge newsletter
Download the bracket in Google Sheets.
Using the drop downs, completely fill out the bracket.
The “Tie Breaker - S&P 500” space should be your guess as to what price the S&P 500 closes on March 29th (last day of March).
Take a screenshot and send your bracket to [email protected] with the subject line “Stock Madness + [your name]”.
Brackets must be submitted by March 21st, 2024 at 10am EST. Any brackets submitted after this time will not be eligible for prizes.
Only one bracket submission per person is allowed
Be sure to vote on our Instagram stories for winners of each head to head battle.
Follow Mark on Instagram: @dividend_dollar
Follow Chris on Instagram: @cmgventure
There will be four battles per day on each of our pages starting on March 21st, 2024. Final championship voting will be on March 30th, 2024 and we will both having the voting poll on our story.
Scoring will be as follows:
You are awarded points for each matchup chosen correctly. Points are not deducted for any incorrect selections, and their values increase each round. Here is a scoring breakdown for each round of play:
First round: 1 point
Second round: 2 points
Sweet 16: 4 points
Elite 8: 8 points
Final Four: 16 points
Championship: 32 points
Now that we have the rules out of the way, we’re sure you are excited to hear about the PRIZES. Without further ado, here is what you can WIN:
Grand prize A: A perfect bracket will earn you a 1 year free subscription to the Investor’s Edge+ and some free swag.
*A perfect bracket means there were zero wrong entries and every matchup was chosen correctly.
Grand prize B: If there are no perfect brackets, the person with the highest scoring bracket will earn a 6 month free subscription to the Investor’s Edge+ and some free swag.
Runner-up: The person with the second highest scoring bracket will earn a 3 month free subscription to the Investor’s Edge+ and one piece of swag.
Third place: The person with the third highest scoring bracket will earn a 1 month free subscription to the Investor’s Edge+ and one piece of swag.
* If there is a tie for any of these prizes, we will be using the “Tie Breaker - S&P 500” guess to determine the winner. The person with the closest guess to the actual price wins.
Scoring will take some time, so winners will be announced the week of April 1st, 2024.
If you have any questions, please leave a comment below or e-mail us at [email protected]
5 Stories Moving the Market
These are some of the biggest stories from the past week that had an influence on market action.
A harsh reminder that inflation may not be going away anytime soon
Recent reports underscore the persistence of inflation, with data showing pressures increasing at a faster-than-expected pace, leading to concerns that inflation may be more enduring than previously anticipated.
A New York Federal Reserve survey indicated consumer expectations over the longer term had accelerated in February, followed by news of a 3.2% year-over-year rise in consumer prices and heating up wholesale pressures indicated in the PPI report.
These developments may prompt the Fed to maintain higher interest rates for longer than expected, with markets adjusting their projections accordingly. Earlier this year, traders in the fed funds futures market were anticipating up to seven rate cuts, totaling 1.75 percentage points; however, this expectation has since diminished to three cuts.
The Federal Open Market Committee will convene next week to discuss its rate decision and revise its outlook on key economic indicators.
House passes bill that could lead to a TikTok ban, fight moves to Senate
The House passed a bill with a decisive 352-65 vote, requiring ByteDance, the parent company of TikTok, to divest the social video app in the U.S. or face a potential ban.
The legislation, named the Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, highlights concerns about national security due to TikTok's foreign control. Introduced by Reps. Mike Gallagher and Raja Krishnamoorthi, the bill now moves to the Senate, where its future is uncertain amid divided opinions.
President Biden, who previously indicated support for the bill, is likely to sign it if passed, with the White House providing technical support in its crafting.
TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew expressed disappointment over the vote, saying that the bill ““gives more power to a handful of other social media companies” and that “it also take billions of dollars out of the pockets of creators and small businesses.”
McDonald’s hit by global tech outage, some restaurants forced to pause operations
McDonald’s experienced a widespread system failure, disrupting food ordering in various parts of the world on Friday.
Reports of issues surged on Downdetector, with spikes in Australia, Japan, and the UK. Outages were also reported in major U.S. cities.
McDonald’s has around 40,000 restaurants globally. Just over 1,000 are in Australia and there are more than 1,450 in the U.K. Japan has nearly 3,000 restaurants, making it one of the largest markets for McDonald’s.
Despite the inconvenience caused to customers, McDonald’s assured that the problem was being resolved and was not related to cybersecurity. By the morning, most restaurants had resumed operations.
March madness is here and a lot of people are going to gamble. So wouldn’t you want an edge? That’s why we are happy to team up with OddJams for this week’s sponsor:
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Dollar Tree to shut nearly 1,000 Family Dollar locations
Dollar Tree acquired Family Dollar in 2015 with hopes of expanding its customer base and reducing costs to compete with larger rivals like Dollar General.
However, integration struggles led to the closure of hundreds of Family Dollar stores. as Family Dollar's conditions were worse than anticipated, despite renovation efforts.
In November, in response to continued challenges, Dollar Tree had said it would be reviewing its Family Dollar business, including potentially shutting down underperforming stores. Just this week, Dollar Tree announced plans to close 600 Family Dollar stores this year and 370 stores over the next several years. It will also close 30 Dollar Tree outlets as leases expire.
Years of mismanagement, store conditions, and a recent $40 million fine for a rat infestation have tarnished Family Dollar's brand. CEO Rick Dreiling cited persistent inflation, a consumer pullback, reduced government benefits, and fierce competition from discount rivals like Dollar General and Walmart as key challenges for Family Dollar.
While discount retail has thrived, Family Dollar's integration into Dollar Tree has been rocky, and this move will further affect those in underserved areas.
Apple reaches $490 million settlement over Tim Cook’s China sales comments
Apple has agreed to a $490 million settlement in a class-action lawsuit accusing CEO Tim Cook of withholding information about declining iPhone demand in China.
The lawsuit arose from Apple's unexpected announcement in January 2019 of a significant reduction in quarterly revenue forecasts, citing U.S.-China trade tensions.
Despite Cook's reassurances to investors in November 2018, Apple later instructed suppliers to cut production, leading to the company's first lowered revenue forecast since the iPhone's launch. The news caused a 10% drop in Apple's shares in 2019, erasing $74 billion of market value.
Apple posted $97 billion of net income in its latest fiscal year, and its payout equals a little under two days of profit.
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IE+ Posts of the Week
We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.
Edge Report
Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even get a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed sticky inflation and shared an options strategy to add insurance to your portfolio around the CPI and PPI data. See the full report here:
Portfolio Update - February
Every month we share a full access look into our portfolios, including holdings, performance, activity and our watchlists for the upcoming month. You can see both of our portfolios here:
Stock Deep Dive - Uber
Our Deep Dive focused on Uber this week. We not only broke down the financials of the largest ridesharing company in the world but we also shared our valuation models and price targets for 2024. You can see the full analysis here:
Earnings Recap
Every week during earnings season we share a recap of the quarterly reports from stocks that we cover. You can see this week’s earnings recaps here:
The Week Ahead
There’s a lot on the calendar next week but all eyes will be on the jobs report.
Earnings Reports
Earnings season may be coming to an end, but there are still a few names we will be watching here at The Investor’s Edge. We will be covering the quarterly reports from Nike, Micron, FedEx and Lululemon.
Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:
Source: Earnings Whispers
Economic Reports
Next week is a busy week. We get the latest interest rate decision from the Fed, multiple housing reports and PMI data. After the uptick in inflation data for February, investors will be paying close attention to Jerome Powell’s words on Wednesday afternoon, as will we here at The Investor’s Edge.
Here is the full calendar of events we will be watching:
Want even more from us? Check out our other resources
If you haven’t done so, check out the social media pages of our collaborators and give them a follow:
Mark (Dividend Seeker)
Chris (CMG Venture)
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Until next time investors!
Mark & Chris
The Investor’s Edge
Disclosure
This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.
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