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Good morning investors!

If this is your first time reading, welcome to The Investor’s Edge — a thriving community of more than 15,000 subscribers striving to be better investors with an edge in the market.

Every weekend we publish “The Weekly Wrap-Up” — your ticket to being well informed and staying ahead in the investment game!

This report is designed to help investors of all skill levels break down important stories/topics within the stock market. And best of all, we cut through all of the BS and give you exactly what you need to know in easy to digest, bite sized pieces of content.

Grab your coffee and let’s dive in.

Market Talk

The market struggled this week as geopolitical concerns, Fed comments and strong labor market data weighed on equities.

3 Stories Moving the Market

These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.

Fed members emphasize need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell highlighted the complexity of assessing current inflation levels during his remarks on Wednesday, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate cuts. Powell emphasized the importance of achieving greater confidence in sustainable inflation movement toward the 2 percent target before considering any policy rate reductions.

This sentiment was echoed by several other Fed members, including Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who advocated for patience in rate adjustments. 

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari even suggested that if inflation remains stable, zero interest rate cuts might be considered by the end of the year. 

Additionally, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman raised the possibility of interest rates needing to rise to control inflation, contrary to market expectations of rate cuts.

U.S. crude oil breaks $87 as Middle East tensions boil

Oil prices surged to their highest levels in five months amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May delivery rose by 0.9% to $87.37 a barrel, while the Brent June contract gained 0.97% to $91.53 a barrel. This week, U.S. crude has climbed 5.03%, while the global benchmark has risen by 4.62%.

Israel's closure of 28 embassies worldwide due to threats from Iran and Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have contributed to supply concerns, pushing prices higher.

Crude oil has experienced significant gains this year, with WTI up by nearly 21% and Brent up by 17.7%, driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations of a supply deficit in the market.

Job growth surged in March as payrolls jumped by 303,000 and unemployment dropped to 3.8%

In March, job creation exceeded expectations, signaling ongoing growth in a robust labor market.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 303,000, surpassing the expected 200,000 increase and outperforming February's gain of 270,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate slightly decreased to 3.8%,  the labor force participation rate rose to 62.7%. and average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% for the month and by 4.1% compared to a year ago.

The markets are closely monitoring employment data as the Federal Reserve deliberates on monetary policy decisions. Stocks fell this week due to worries that a robust labor market and strong economy might delay potential interest rate cuts by the central bank.

Market expectations suggest the possibility of a rate cut in June, although some Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have expressed a preference for a cautious approach dependent on data.

IE+ Posts of the Week

We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.

Edge Report

Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the upcoming jobs reports and warned that there could be some volatility ahead. See the full report here:

Top Stocks to Watch - April

At the beginning of each month we share our top stocks that we are watching in the weeks ahead. This week we released the third edition of this new report where we performed a full analysis of 10 stocks and shared our price targets.

We decided to unlock one stock’s analysis so everyone can see the value IE+ members get. Get your sneak peek here:

The Week Ahead

The inflation data will be the main catalyst for market action next week, followed closely by the major banks kicking off earnings season on Friday.

Earnings Reports

The major banks report earnings on Friday, which not only means earnings season is kicking off but also means our earnings recaps will be returning next week. Specifically, here at The Investor’s Edge we will be watching JPMorgan, BlackRock and Delta:

Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

Economic Reports

Although the Fed’s preferred inflation metric is the PCE, next week’s CPI and PPI reports will give us a look into how inflation performed in March and will set the tone for interest rate decisions going forward.

Here is the full calendar of events we will be watching:

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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!

Until next time investors!

Mark & Chris

The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure

This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.