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- Weekly Wrap-Up - November 23rd, 2024
Weekly Wrap-Up - November 23rd, 2024
Nvidia's earnings are out, but why didn't the stock go up?
Good morning investors!
If this is your first time reading, welcome to The Investor’s Edge — a thriving community of over 20,000 subscribers striving to be better investors with an edge in the market.
Every weekend we publish “The Weekly Wrap-Up” — your ticket to being well informed and staying ahead in the investment game!
This report is designed to help investors of all skill levels break down important stories/topics within the stock market. And best of all, we cut through all of the BS and give you exactly what you need to know in easy to digest, bite sized pieces of content.
Grab your coffee and let’s dive in.
Market Talk
It was a green week across the board for the major indexes while Bitcoin continued its impressive march towards $100k.
3 Stories Moving the Market
These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.
Nvidia shares fluctuate as investors digest third-quarter earnings
Nvidia's Q3 earnings beat expectations on both revenue and EPS, but shares fluctuated as investors digested mixed reactions. Revenue soared 94% YoY to $35.08 billion, exceeding forecasts of $33.16 billion, with adjusted EPS at $0.81 also surpassing estimates.
Nvidia dominates the AI chip market, critical for models like OpenAI’s ChatGPT. Despite impressive YoY sales growth, Q3 marked a slowdown from previous quarters, with prior growth rates of 122%, 262%, and 265% in the last three quarters.
The broader semiconductor sector reacted with mixed movements; AMD fell 1%, while Qualcomm and Intel gained 1% and 1.2%, respectively. Analysts flagged risks around Nvidia’s "overearning" as GPU demand becomes the baseline expectation.
CEO Jensen Huang noted high demand for Nvidia's next-gen Blackwell chip, outpacing supply, positioning the company for potential future gains despite concerns of slowing growth.
👉 EDGE TAKEAWAY: Nvidia's meteoric rise has been fueled by unparalleled demand for its AI-focused GPUs, but the company now faces significant risks that could challenge its lofty valuation.
With a trailing P/E ratio well above industry norms, Nvidia’s stock price reflects an expectation of sustained hyper-growth. However, Q3 results showed a deceleration in YoY revenue growth to 94%, down sharply from prior quarters’ triple-digit gains, suggesting that the explosive growth phase may be normalizing.
As GPU demand becomes a baseline rather than a catalyst, the risk of overearning could weigh on investor sentiment, particularly if competition from rivals like AMD intensifies or macroeconomic headwinds curtail enterprise AI spending.
Furthermore, Nvidia's premium pricing is contingent on continued leadership in cutting-edge chips, like the upcoming Blackwell architecture. While CEO Jensen Huang has indicated strong demand, supply constraints and execution risks could delay broader adoption.
The broader semiconductor space also faces cyclical pressures, and any faltering in Nvidia's ability to meet sky-high growth expectations could trigger a sharp correction. Investors should weigh these risks against Nvidia’s dominant market position and innovative pipeline as the stock enters a potentially more measured growth phase.
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Alphabet shares fell 4% after the DOJ proposed that Google divest its Chrome browser to address antitrust violations.
The DOJ argues that divestiture would reduce Google’s control over a key search access point and create a level playing field for rival search engines. This is part of a broader antitrust battle in which a federal judge ruled Google held illegal monopolies in search and text advertising under the Sherman Act.
The DOJ’s proposed remedies include banning exclusionary agreements with companies like Apple and Samsung, preventing preferential treatment for Google search within its ecosystem, and restricting anti-competitive acquisitions or partnerships for 10 years. While the DOJ also suggested divesting Android, it sees the Chrome divestiture and other measures as sufficient to restore competition.
Google criticized the proposal as overly broad, arguing it risks undermining its products and innovation. The company plans to appeal the monopoly ruling, likely delaying any final decisions.
📚 EDGE-UCATION: How is this case similar to Microsoft's antitrust decision in the early 2000s?
The antitrust case against Google shares key similarities with the Microsoft antitrust case of the early 2000s, particularly in the government’s focus on curbing monopolistic practices in technology ecosystems.
Dominance in a Critical Market:
Both cases target dominant players accused of leveraging their market power to stifle competition. Microsoft was found to have illegally maintained its Windows operating system monopoly by bundling Internet Explorer to disadvantage rivals like Netscape. Similarly, Google is accused of using its dominance in search and advertising to suppress competition, with Chrome and Android serving as "gateways" to entrench its search engine.Structural Remedies:
In both cases, the DOJ proposed breaking up the companies to address antitrust concerns. In Microsoft's case, the initial proposal was to split the company into two units—one for the operating system and one for other software. For Google, the DOJ has called for the divestiture of Chrome and potentially Android to weaken its grip on search and advertising markets.Focus on Ecosystem Control:
Both cases highlight how ecosystem control can create barriers for rivals. Microsoft’s bundling agreements with PC manufacturers mirrored Google’s alleged exclusionary deals with device makers like Apple and Samsung, ensuring its dominance in search and advertising.Broad Industry Impact:
Both cases had implications beyond the targeted companies, with the potential to reshape the competitive landscape. The Microsoft ruling indirectly fostered growth for other browsers and competitors, while the proposed remedies for Google aim to open markets for emerging search engines and advertising platforms.
While the Microsoft case was ultimately settled without a breakup, it curtailed the company’s anti-competitive practices and paved the way for a more open tech industry. Google now faces similar scrutiny, with outcomes that could redefine the boundaries of monopolistic behavior in the digital age.
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Bitcoin Nears $100,000 Milestone — Why Its Price Keeps Rising
Bitcoin surged toward $100,000, reaching a high of $99,860 and closing at $99,379, marking its fifth consecutive all-time high.
The cryptocurrency has gained 40% since November 5, driven by bullish factors including President-elect Donald Trump’s crypto-friendly policies, heavy buying from MicroStrategy, and the launch of options trading on Bitcoin ETFs.
Trump’s nomination of crypto advocate Howard Lutnick as Commerce Secretary and discussions of creating a "strategic Bitcoin stockpile" have fueled speculation of reduced crypto regulation. MicroStrategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 331,200 tokens worth $31 billion, continues to support the rally.
Bitcoin’s market value now stands at $1.9 trillion, with analysts predicting six-figure prices as institutional demand grows.
In Other News
In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.
Walmart hikes its outlook again as shoppers spend more outside the grocery aisles
Amazon to invest another $4 billion in Anthropic, OpenAI’s biggest rival
Target shares plunge 21% after positing biggest earnings miss in two years and cutting forecast
Lowe’s beats on earnings and hikes guidance, but still expects sales to fall this year
McDonald's to expand US value menu as fast food chains battle for bargain seekers
Deere's profit beat overshadows tepid 2025 outlook, shares rise
DirecTV calls off acquisition of rival Dish, possibly ending a yearslong pursuit
Snowflake rockets 32%, its best day ever, after earnings beat
Gap shares surge as it raises guidance, touts ‘strong start’ to holiday
Adani Group shares nosedive after chairman Gautam Adani charged with fraud in New York
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IE+ Posts of the Week
We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.
Edge Report
Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the upcoming earnings, including the one report the entire market was waiting for — Nvidia. See the latest full report here:
Stock Deep Dive - Meta Platforms
Our Deep Dive focused on Meta this week. We not only broke down the financials of the the sixth largest company in the U.S. by market cap, but we also shared our valuation models, price targets for 2024, and put the stock through our new Edge Scoring System. You can see the full analysis here:
Earnings Recap
Every week during earnings season is extremely busy for us here at the Edge as we dive into over 100 reports and provide our members with top tier breakdowns and insights. This week we saw earnings from Nvidia, Walmart, Palo Alto, and several more. See this week’s recap:
The Week Ahead
It may be a holiday shortened week with Thanksgiving on Thursday, but there are a number of key economic and earnings reports packed into the first half of the week.
Earnings Reports
There are two companies we’ll be watching next week:
Monday 11/25: --
Tuesday 11/26: Crowdstrike and Dick’s Sporting Goods
Wednesday 11/27: --
Thursday 11/28: Thanksgiving (Market Closed)
Friday 11/29: --
Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:
Source: Earnings Whispers
Economic Reports
Next week will be all about inflation data as the PCE report will be released. This is the Fed’s preferred inflation metric and the last report before the Fed’s next interest rate decision.
There will also be initial jobless claims, GDP data, several housing reports, and the release of the meeting minutes from the November FOMC.
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🗨️ Chat rooms: Investors discussed the the huge moves from mega cap tech. Members also dove into the number of jobs reports and shared their views on the overall economy.
📊 Earnings / Economic reports: No more waiting for our newsletters to hit your inboxes - see earnings results and economic data as they are released. And more importantly, get our reactions and insights immediately.
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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!
Until next time investors!
Mark & Chris
The Investor’s Edge
Disclosure
This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.
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