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Good morning investors!

If this is your first time reading, welcome to The Investor’s Edge — a thriving community of over 25,000 subscribers striving to be better investors with an edge in the market.

Every weekend we publish “The Weekly Wrap-Up” — your ticket to being well informed and staying ahead in the investment game!

This report is designed to help investors of all skill levels break down important stories/topics within the stock market. And best of all, we cut through all of the BS and give you exactly what you need to know in easy to digest, bite sized pieces of content.

Grab your coffee and let’s dive in.

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Market Talk

All three major indexes made record highs this week, but all cooled from those levels into the end of the week. Tech was the big winner, though there was a decent amount of weakness under the surface.

3 Stories Moving the Market

These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.

Trump and Xi Reach One-Year Truce on Rare Earths

President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping agreed to a one-year suspension of China’s rare earth export controls during their meeting in South Korea, easing fears of a renewed trade war. The deal includes a partial rollback of U.S. tariffs and China’s pledge to expand agricultural purchases, though key areas remain vague. Both leaders framed the truce as temporary but likely to be extended next year.

🔑 Key Points

  • Rare earths: China paused sweeping export controls that had threatened U.S. defense and chip supply chains.

  • Tariffs: Trump cut some China tariffs to 10%, lowering the effective overall rate to roughly 47%.

  • Agriculture: Beijing committed to buying 25M metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three years.

  • Energy & tech: Trump said China may buy Alaskan oil and gas; Nvidia chip export talks will continue.

  • TikTok & ports: Both sides agreed to resolve TikTok issues and suspend port docking fees for one year.

👀 What You Need to Know

The truce de-escalates tensions but favors Beijing strategically, as China used rare earth leverage to win tariff relief without major concessions. The deal’s vagueness on enforcement, energy purchases, and tech access underscores how fragile the truce is. While markets may cheer the short-term stability, this agreement simply resets the clock on broader US-China friction over semiconductors and trade dominance. Investors should view it as a pause in escalation rather than a lasting resolution.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: This one-year pause relieves near-term supply pressure, but China still holds leverage across the materials and demand chain that underpins U.S. tech. Nvidia is the…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

Tariffs Poised to Lift Holiday Prices as Inflation Stays Sticky

Tariffs imposed earlier this year are about to show up where it hurts most, consumer prices. Bank of America estimates they add roughly 0.5 percentage points to core PCE, keeping inflation near 2.9% instead of sliding toward 2.4%. With shoppers already leaning on credit, those extra costs could pressure household budgets and narrow retailer margins just as peak season begins.

🔑 Key Points

  • Tariff effect: BofA estimates tariffs are raising inflation by ~0.5 percentage points.

  • Fed dilemma: Core inflation remains stuck near 2.9%, above the 2% target since 2021.

  • Consumer burden: Shoppers now absorb roughly 50%–70% of tariff costs.

  • Visible pain: Prices for coffee, furniture, and apparel have all risen in recent months.

  • Holiday hit: LendingTree projects tariffs could add $132 per shopper, or $40.6B total.

👀 What You Need to Know

Tariffs aren’t reigniting inflation, they’re preventing it from cooling. That distinction matters for a Fed eager to claim progress while consumers still feel squeezed. Visible price jumps in daily purchases, from coffee to clothing, reinforce “inflation fatigue” and shape expectations more than official data suggests. As import-heavy goods hit shelves this holiday season, rising costs could quietly pressure margins, dampen discretionary demand, and expose how thin consumer resilience really is.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: Consumers are already tapped out heading into the holiday season. Total household debt has…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

📚 Edge-ucation: What Delinquencies Really Mean

Delinquencies measure how many borrowers have fallen behind on their debt payments, typically defined as loans overdue by 30 days or more. They’re one of the clearest signals of consumer stress because they reveal when people are struggling to meet existing obligations despite stable employment or income levels.

  • Early warning signal: Rising delinquencies often precede broader defaults, showing strain before it hits credit losses or GDP data.

  • Cycle indicator: In expansions, delinquencies trend low; when liquidity tightens or savings fall, they move higher fast.

  • Segment sensitivity: Subprime credit cards and auto loans react first, while mortgages usually lag because of longer payment buffers.

  • Macro implications: Higher delinquencies tighten bank lending standards, pressure retail sales, and slow credit growth.

In short, delinquencies act as the economy’s “canary in the coal mine,” showing where household cash flow cracks are forming long before they show up in unemployment or spending data.

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Q3 Earnings Season: This Week’s Roundup

Several major names reported this week, with results generally better than feared. Pricing, volume, and cost control helped most companies top expectations, while guidance was steady to higher in most cases.

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▼ 0.49% ) delivered a blowout quarter on incretin demand and raised guidance.

  • EPS: $7.02 adj. vs $5.69 est.

  • Revenue: $17.60B vs $16.05B est.

  • Highlights: GLP-1/obesity drug sales +185% (Zepbound), diabetes drug sales +109% (Mounjaro), revenue +54% YoY, FY25 revenue guidance raised to $63.0-63.5B.

Mastercard $MA ( ▲ 0.91% ) beat on both lines with resilient spending and strong services growth.

  • EPS: $4.38 adj. vs $4.32 est.

  • Revenue: $8.60B vs $8.53B est.

  • Highlights: Global net revenue +16-17% YoY, cross-border volume +15%, value-added services growth strong, consumer spending held up.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 1.01% ) beat profit expectations, missed on revenue, and lifted the dividend.

  • EPS: $1.88 adj. vs $1.82 est.

  • Revenue: $85.29B vs $86.47B est.

  • Highlights: Production 4.8M boe/d (record Permian + Guyana), share buybacks $5.1B + dividend raise to $1.03, capex guidance trimmed.

AbbVie $ABBV ( ▲ 0.33% ) topped estimates and nudged guidance higher.

  • EPS: $1.86 adj. vs $1.77 est.

  • Revenue: $15.78B vs $15.59B est.

  • Highlights: Immunology sales +12%, neuroscience sales +20%, oncology revenue flat/-0.3%, dividend hiked ~5.5% to $1.73.

Starbucks $SBUX ( ▼ 0.07% ) posted a revenue beat and first global comp gain in seven quarters, though EPS missed.

  • EPS: $0.52 adj. vs $0.56 est.

  • Revenue: $9.57B vs $9.33B est.

  • Highlights: Global comps +1% (U.S. flat), net income -85% YoY, closed 627 stores in quarter, turnaround plan underway.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: Lilly’s blowout quarter reinforced its leadership in metabolic treatments but management…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

In Other News

In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

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Edge+ Posts of the Week

We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.

The Edge Report

Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the upcoming Fed interest rate decision as well as several major earnings on the calendar. See the latest full report here:

Earnings Recap

Every week during earnings season is extremely busy for us here at the Edge as we dive into over 100 reports and provide our members with top tier breakdowns and insights. This week we saw earnings from Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta. See this week’s recap:

The Week Ahead

It is another huge week of earnings, while we actually get a few economic releases despite the government shutdown entering its second month.

Earnings Reports

Last week may have been the biggest week of earnings season, but this week is yet another busy one here for us at the Stock Investor’s Edge. There are 12 companies that we cover expected to report and, as always, we will be breaking down each one as they release on the Discord and throughout the week in the newsletter:

  • Monday 11/3: Palantir, Simon Property, Realty Income

  • Tuesday 11/4: AMD, Uber, and Shopify

  • Wednesday 11/5: McDonald’s and Qualcomm

  • Thursday 11/6: Airbnb, Block, and The Trade Desk

  • Friday 11/7: Enbridge

Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

Source: Earnings Whispers

Economic Reports

As we head into month 2 of the government shutdown, economic releases are still scarce but we get a few key reports next week — ADP employment, PMI data, and consumer sentiment.

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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!

Until next time investors!

Mark & Chris

The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure

This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.

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