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Good morning investors!

If this is your first time reading, welcome to The Investor’s Edge — a thriving community of over 28,000 subscribers striving to be better investors with an edge in the market.

Every weekend we publish “The Weekly Wrap-Up” — your ticket to being well informed and staying ahead in the investment game!

This report is designed to help investors of all skill levels break down important stories/topics within the stock market. And best of all, we cut through all of the BS and give you exactly what you need to know in easy to digest, bite sized pieces of content.

Grab your coffee and let’s dive in.

Market Talk

The S&P and Nasdaq made new all-time highs again, while oil prices saw another big jump.

3 Stories Moving the Market

These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.

MAG7 Earnings: strong quarters across the board, mixed reactions due to guidance

All MAG7 graphics can be found on the Discord

It was a monster week for Q1 prints, with all five beating on revenue and EPS. Reactions were mixed though, as elevated capex guidance overshadowed clean operational beats at Meta and Amazon, while Apple and Alphabet caught bids.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▼ 0.63% ) posted its fastest revenue growth since 2022, led by a historic Cloud quarter and Search reacceleration that pushed back hard on the AI disruption narrative.

  • EPS: $5.11 vs. $2.63 est.

  • Revenue: $109.9B vs. $106.98B est.

  • Highlights: Revenue +22% YoY, Google Cloud $20.0B +63% YoY, Cloud op. margin 32.9% vs. 17.8% prior year, Cloud backlog $460B, Search +19% YoY to $60.4B, YouTube ads $9.9B +11% YoY, op. margin 36.1%, FCF $10.1B, 2026 capex guide raised to $180B-$190B, dividend +5% to $0.22/share

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 0.2% ) beat across the board with Azure reaccelerating to 40% growth and the AI business crossing a $37B annualized run rate, though the stock fell as a $190B full-year capex outlook and a light Q4 revenue guide dampened sentiment.

  • EPS: $4.27 vs. $4.06 est.

  • Revenue: $82.89B vs. $81.40B est.

  • Highlights: Revenue +18% YoY, Intelligent Cloud $34.7B +30% YoY, Azure +40% YoY, Microsoft Cloud $54.5B +29% YoY, AI run rate $37B +123% YoY, gross margin 68%, op. cash flow $46.7B +26%, FCF $15.8B, commercial RPO $627B +99% YoY, Q4 revenue guide $86.7B-$87.8B (below $87.5B est.), FY26 capex guide $190B

Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 1.41% ) crushed every line with AWS hitting its fastest growth in 15 quarters and retail margins expanding, but shares slid roughly 3% as free cash flow collapsed 95% year over year on a $44B capex quarter.

  • EPS: $2.78 vs. $1.63 est.

  • Revenue: $181.52B vs. $177.28B est.

  • Highlights: Revenue +17% YoY, AWS $37.6B +28% YoY, AWS op. margin 37.7%, advertising $17.2B +24% YoY, N. America op. margin 9.0% vs. 8.0% prior year, op. income $23.9B (above $21.5B high-end guide), capex $44.2B, TTM FCF $1.2B vs. $25.9B prior year, custom chips >$20B annualized run rate, Q2 guide $194B-$199B

Meta $META ( ▲ 0.27% ) beat cleanly on revenue and adjusted EPS with ad impressions and pricing both accelerating, but shares dropped roughly 7% as capex guidance was raised $10B at the midpoint and DAP missed estimates, with internet disruptions in Iran cited as the culprit.

  • EPS: $10.44 vs. $6.67 est.

  • Revenue: $56.31B vs. $55.56B est.

  • Highlights: Revenue +33% YoY (+29% constant currency), ad impressions +19% YoY, avg. price per ad +12% YoY, op. margin 41%, DAP 3.56B +4% YoY (missed 3.62B est.), Reality Labs op. loss $4.03B, 2026 capex guide raised to $125B-$145B, Q2 revenue guide $58B-$61B

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.18% ) put up its best March quarter ever across revenue, iPhone, and EPS, with Services hitting an all-time high and gross margin beating consensus, though supply constraints on TSMC's 3nm node limited the iPhone upside. Shares moved higher on a Q3 guide that topped expectations.

  • EPS: $2.01 vs. $1.95 est.

  • Revenue: $111.18B vs. $109.46B est.

  • Highlights: Revenue +17% YoY, iPhone $57.0B +22% YoY (March quarter record), Services $31.0B +16% YoY (all-time record), gross margin 49.3%, op. cash flow >$28B (March quarter record), $100B buyback authorized, dividend +4% to $0.27/share, Q3 guide +14%-17% YoY, Q3 gross margin guide 47.5%-48.5%

For full breakdowns of these earnings, including graphics and all key takeaways. head to the earnings channel in our Discord.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: As each report dropped, I (Chris) went through the releases in real time, built graphics, broke down the key metrics, and wrote up my initial reactions on Discord. Then I listened to every call and posted my takeaways from those as well. The main takeaway across all MAG7 earnings this week was…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

The Fed Holds Rates as Powell Delivers His Final Remarks as Chair

The Federal Reserve voted to hold its benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting, citing elevated inflation and mounting uncertainty from the Middle East conflict. The 8-4 vote was the most divided FOMC decision in over three decades, with dissenters split between wanting a cut and wanting to drop any signal of future cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell used his closing remarks to defend the institution's independence and confirm he will remain on the Board.

🔑 Key Points

  • Rate Held Again: The FOMC kept the federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% for a third straight meeting.

  • Historic Split Vote: Four members dissented, the most since October 1992, for differing reasons.

  • Inflation Still Hot: Total PCE rose 3.5% and core PCE rose 3.2% over the prior twelve months.

  • Powell Staying On: Powell will remain a Fed governor past May 15, citing an unresolved DOJ investigation and Fed independence.

  • Warsh Advancing: Senate Banking Committee approved Kevin Warsh's Fed chair nomination the same day.

👀 What You Need to Know

The Fed is caught between inflation that keeps running hot and an economy that has not yet cracked, and the Middle East conflict is making both sides of that problem worse. The unusual four-way dissent signals the committee is losing its internal consensus heading into a leadership change, which adds uncertainty to an already murky policy outlook. Powell's decision to stay on the board blocks Trump from filling that seat with a new appointee.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: The 8-4 dissent was a structural warning shot that tells you exactly where this committee's head is at heading into a leadership transition. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan agreed to holding rates at this meeting, but they objected to…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

📚 Edge-ucation: What is an FOMC Dissent?

A dissent happens when a voting member of the Fed disagrees with the majority decision and puts that disagreement on the official record. Instead of going along with the group, a dissenting member is publicly signaling that they believe policy is moving in the wrong direction, and that signal carries real weight for markets.

  • What a Dissent Is: A formal vote against the FOMC majority, logged in the official policy statement and visible to every investor on the planet.

  • Two Types: A dovish dissent means a member wanted to cut faster. A hawkish dissent means a member wanted to hold firm or raise rates.

  • Why It Matters: Dissents reveal fractures inside the Fed before they ever show up in actual policy changes.

  • This Week's Context: Four dissents have not happened since 1992, and three of the four were hawkish, signaling rate cut may get pushed further out, potentially pressuring stock and bond valuations.

Understanding dissents gives investors an early read on where monetary policy is heading before the Fed ever makes an official move.

Apple just secretly added Starlink satellite support to iPhones through iOS 18.3.

One of the biggest potential winners? Mode Mobile.

Mode’s EarnPhone already reaches 490M+ users that have earned over $1B, and that’s before global satellite coverage. With SpaceX eliminating "dead zones," Mode's earning technology can now reach billions more in unbanked and rural populations worldwide.

Their global expansion is perfectly timed, and investors like you still have a chance to invest in their pre-IPO offering at $0.50/share.

With their recent 32,481% revenue growth and newly reserved Nasdaq ticker, Mode is one step closer to a potential IPO.

Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A+ Offering.

Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur.

The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.

OpenAI Faces Trial, Missed Targets, and a Rewritten Microsoft Deal

OpenAI had one of its most consequential weeks in recent memory, with a federal jury trial, a damaging financial report, and a rewritten partnership with its largest backer all landing at the same time. A report revealed the company missed internal targets for both revenue and weekly active users, raising questions about its ability to fund billions in data center commitments ahead of a potential IPO. OpenAI also formally ended its cloud exclusivity with Microsoft, opening the door to selling its models through Amazon and Google.

🔑 Key Points

  • Revenue Target Missed: OpenAI missed multiple monthly revenue targets this year, with Gemini and Anthropic gaining market share.

  • User Goal Missed: OpenAI failed to reach its internal target of one billion weekly active ChatGPT users by year-end.

  • CFO's Warning: CFO Sarah Friar told colleagues OpenAI may not afford future compute contracts if revenue does not accelerate.

  • Microsoft Deal Rewritten: OpenAI can now sell models on any cloud, ending Microsoft's exclusivity while keeping Azure as primary partner.

  • Musk on the Stand: Musk testified he donated $38M to OpenAI, which he says became an $800B for-profit company.

👀 What You Need to Know

OpenAI is spending aggressively on infrastructure while revenue growth has slowed, and it is heading toward a public market debut at the same time. The Microsoft deal rewrite gives OpenAI more ways to bring in customers, but it also confirms the old partnership was not generating enough growth on its own. For now, the company is burning cash fast and facing real questions about whether its business can keep up with its ambitions.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: On the Microsoft rewrite, the bull case is the company traded exclusivity it was about to lose anyway for certainty, locking in a 20% revenue share from OpenAI through 2030 while dropping its own outbound payment obligation entirely. Plus Q3 results show Azure…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

In Other News

In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

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Edge+ Posts of the Week

We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.

The Edge Report

Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed how stocks were sitting at all-time highs as we entered one of the biggest weeks of the year - 5 MAG7 earnings, a Strait that is still closed, the Fed rate decision, and the latest PCE report. See the latest full report here:

The Week Ahead

Next week will be another big week for the market, with a slew of earnings and 5 labor reports scheduled. As always, we’ll be breaking the news as it all happens.

Earnings Reports

It’s another major week for earnings and we’ll be busy once again. Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

Overall, 12 of the names we cover are set to report:

  • Monday 5/4: Palantir

  • Tuesday 5/5: AMD, Shopify, and PayPal

  • Wednesday 5/6: Disney, Uber, and Realty Income

  • Thursday 5/7: McDonald’s, Coinbase, Airbnb, and Block

  • Friday 5/8: Enbridge

Economic Reports

Next week is all about the labor market with nonfarm payrolls, unemployment, ADP, JOLTs, and initial jobless claims all on the calendar.

We also get services PMI data, new home sales, and consumer sentiment.

Here is the full calendar of events we will be watching:

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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!

Until next time investors!

Mark & Chris

The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure

This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.

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