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Good morning investors!

If this is your first time reading, welcome to The Investor’s Edge — a thriving community of over 27,000 subscribers striving to be better investors with an edge in the market.

Every weekend we publish “The Weekly Wrap-Up” — your ticket to being well informed and staying ahead in the investment game!

This report is designed to help investors of all skill levels break down important stories/topics within the stock market. And best of all, we cut through all of the BS and give you exactly what you need to know in easy to digest, bite sized pieces of content.

Grab your coffee and let’s dive in.

Market Talk

Stocks had yet another tough week on the US/Iran news. Meanwhile, oil jumped again, treasury yields surged, and the dollar traded back above $100.

3 Stories Moving the Market

These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.

Markets Ignore Trump’s Pause on Iranian Infrastructure Strikes - Oil Prices Rise, Stocks Fall

This week’s U.S. Iran developments failed to calm markets as delayed strikes and stalled diplomacy kept energy supply concerns elevated. Oil moved higher alongside yields and the dollar, reflecting tightening financial conditions tied to disrupted shipping flows. Equities declined as investors focused on persistent supply constraints and the growing likelihood that conflict timelines extend beyond current policy deadlines.

🔑 Key Points

  • Strike delay: Trump extended paused infrastructure strikes for 10 days, pushing the deadline to April 6th at 8pm EST.

  • Hormuz status: Strait remained constrained as shipping risks, insurance costs, and military threats limited tanker activity materially.

  • Talks rejected: Iran denied negotiations and rejected proposals, reducing confidence in diplomacy and reinforcing prolonged conflict expectations.

  • Oil rebound: Brent rose above $110, WTI near $97, reversing earlier declines tied to pause headlines.

  • Macro tightening: 10Y yields approached 4.45% and the dollar index rose above 100 again, tightening financial conditions and pressuring equities.

👀 What You Need to Know

Markets are now anchored to physical supply conditions and inflation expectations driven by energy prices. Rising oil feeds directly into rate expectations, pushing yields higher while strengthening the dollar and pressuring equities. Trump’s strike delays have not restored confidence as shipping flows remain impaired and diplomacy lacks traction. The setup keeps financial conditions tight and volatility elevated as the April 6 deadline approaches and uncertainty around supply normalization persists.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: The longer this war drags on, the more the impact shifts from short-term volatility into…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

Jury finds Meta and Google liable in landmark social media case

A Los Angeles jury found Meta $META ( ▲ 0.35% ) and Google $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.82% ) liable for harms tied to social media product design affecting younger users. The case focused on how certain app features may have encouraged excessive use without proper safeguards. While the financial penalty is small, the ruling adds pressure on how platforms build products and manage user engagement going forward.

🔑 Key Points

  • Small financial hit: The jury found Meta liable for $4.2M in damages and Google for $1.8M, rather insignificant relative to company sizes

  • Feature scrutiny: Tools like autoplay and endless scrolling are being questioned for encouraging longer and more frequent usage

  • Legal shift: Courts are focusing on product design which may weaken current protections tied to user generated content

  • More cases ahead: Similar lawsuits are moving through courts which could increase pressure on large social media companies

  • Engagement risk: Any required changes to platform features could reduce time spent and affect advertising revenue over time

👀 What You Need to Know

This ruling does not necessarily change earnings today, but it highlights a growing risk around how social media companies operate. If more cases follow this path, platforms may need to adjust features that keep users engaged. That could impact how these companies grow their advertising business. The biggest watch going forward is whether this becomes a trend across courts and regulators.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: Meta is getting hit from multiple angles of late as AI capex spending surges, operational sentiment turns negative, and…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

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TurboQuant and Supply Constraints Pressure Semiconductor Stocks Across the Board

Semiconductor stocks moved lower this week, with memory names seeing the sharpest declines. Alphabet’s TurboQuant announcement added pressure by raising concerns around how much memory future AI models may require. At the same time, supply constraints at Broadcom $AVGO ( ▲ 6.21% ) and Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM ( ▲ 1.04% ) persist, while AMD $AMD ( ▲ 0.61% ) and Intel $INTC ( ▲ 4.2% ) continue increasing pricing across key data center products.

🔑 Key Points

  • Memory selloff: Memory stocks including Micron pulled back after TurboQuant raised concerns about lower memory intensity in future AI workloads.

  • HBM constraint: Micron and SK hynix remain supply constrained, with HBM capacity fully allocated to hyperscaler demand.

  • Semis pressure: Broadcom faces supply limits tied to networking and custom AI chips despite strong demand from hyperscalers.

  • TSM bottleneck: Taiwan Semiconductor continues facing CoWoS capacity constraints, limiting how quickly advanced AI chips can be deployed.

  • Pricing power: AMD and Intel are raising prices across data center products, supported by tight supply and strong demand.

👀 What You Need to Know

This week showed how quickly semiconductor stocks react when demand assumptions shift. Memory names led declines as investors questioned how efficiency tools could impact future pricing, even with supply still tight today. At the same time, ongoing constraints across packaging and infrastructure continue supporting pricing across parts of the industry. The setup now hinges on whether efficiency gains slow demand growth or extend the current supply-driven cycle.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: The near term setup across semis continues to reflect physical bottlenecks across memory and packaging, alongside…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

📚 Edge-ucation: What Memory Supply Means in Semiconductors

Memory supply refers to the production and availability of chips like DRAM and NAND, which store and process data across devices and data centers. These chips are essential for everything from smartphones to AI workloads, with demand rising sharply as data usage increases. Unlike logic chips, memory is highly cyclical and sensitive to supply imbalances, which directly impact pricing and profitability across the semiconductor industry.

  • DRAM memory: Used for active processing in servers and devices, DRAM demand is driven heavily by AI, cloud computing, and enterprise workloads.

  • NAND memory: Used for storage in SSDs and consumer electronics, NAND demand depends more on PCs, smartphones, and data storage trends.

  • HBM supply: High bandwidth memory is critical for AI chips, and current supply is limited due to complex manufacturing and packaging constraints.

  • Supply dynamics: Memory producers control output tightly, with oversupply leading to price crashes and tight supply driving sharp margin expansion.

Understanding memory supply helps investors identify where pricing power exists, how cycles develop, and which semiconductor companies benefit most from changing demand conditions.

In Other News

In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

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Edge+ Posts of the Week

We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.

The Edge Report

Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the longer term weakness in the market as the US/Iran war continues. See the latest full report here:

The Week Ahead

The labor market will be in focus as investors look to see how the second aspect of the Fed’s dual mandate is holding up. Meanwhile, the US/Iran war will most likely continue to impact markets.

Earnings Reports

Earnings season is behind us but there are still a handful of names left to report. Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

Overall, just one of the names we cover are set to report with Nike reporting on Tuesday after the bell:

Economic Reports

Next week will be all about the labor market with nonfarm payrolls, ADP employment, JOLTs job openings and initial jobless claims on the calendar.

We also get retail sales, PMI data, and several housing insights.

Here is the full calendar of events we will be watching:

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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!

Until next time investors!

Mark & Chris

The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure

This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.

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