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Market Talk
Stocks had another tough week on more US/Iran news. Meanwhile, gold fell, treasury yields surged, and the dollar remained strong.


3 Stories Moving the Market
These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.
Oil Volatility Surges As US Iran Conflict Threatens Global Energy Supply

Escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to drive sharp volatility across energy markets this week. Strikes on export hubs and energy infrastructure raised concerns about supply disruptions and transportation risk through key shipping lanes. Markets reacted quickly as oil prices surged, reflecting heightened geopolitical risk and uncertainty around how long disruptions could persist.
🔑 Key Points
Export hub strike: U.S. strikes on Kharg Island disrupted Iran’s primary export terminal, tightening global supply expectations immediately.
Hormuz disruption risk: Military threats near the Strait of Hormuz raised concerns over shipping flows representing significant global oil volumes.
Infrastructure targeting: Iran expanded retaliation to include regional oil and gas facilities, increasing risk of sustained production outages.
Strategic response actions: Governments coordinated reserve releases and explored policy adjustments to offset supply disruptions and stabilize markets.
Policy shift signals: U.S. officials considered easing sanctions on Iranian oil to quickly reintroduce barrels into constrained markets.
👀 What You Need to Know
Oil has become the main channel through which this conflict is impacting markets. When energy prices rise quickly, it can push inflation higher and create pressure on stocks across multiple sectors. The key question now is whether disruptions remain contained or continue to escalate. If tensions stabilize, markets may calm. If not, volatility in both oil and equities is likely to persist.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: You may be wondering why an investing newsletter is focusing so much on geopolitics, but this oil shock will have major consequences the longer it goes on. The Strait of Hormuz…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.
Fed Holds Rates Steady as Inflation Risks and Uncertainty Persist

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged while noting the economy is still growing and inflation remains above target. Officials pointed to rising uncertainty from global events and shifting price pressures, especially in energy and goods. Updated projections show steady growth ahead but slightly higher inflation expectations, suggesting policymakers are staying cautious as they balance economic strength with ongoing price concerns.
🔑 Key Points
Policy decision: FOMC maintained target range at 3.5%-3.75%, citing appropriate stance amid balanced employment and inflation risks.
Inflation outlook: Median PCE inflation projected at 2.7% for 2026, reflecting upward revision driven by energy and goods pressures.
Growth stability: Real GDP projections improved modestly to 2.4% for 2026, indicating resilient consumption and investment trends.
Labor dynamics: Unemployment projected near 4.4%, with low job growth reflecting slowing labor supply and moderated hiring demand.
Policy path: Median rate forecast implies gradual easing toward 3.1% by 2027, contingent on inflation progress and evolving risks.
👀 What You Need to Know
The Fed is holding steady for now, but the backdrop is getting more complicated. Inflation is still running above target, and rising energy prices could push it higher in the near term. At the same time, job growth has slowed, which adds some downside risk to the economy. That combination means the Fed is likely to stay cautious, waiting for clearer signals before making any changes to rates.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: The Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for March still kept the same rough baseline trajectory for rate cuts, but the underlying message…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.
📚 Edge-ucation: What is the Fed’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP)?
The Summary of Economic Projections, or SEP, is the Federal Reserve’s quarterly forecast for the U.S. economy, released after select FOMC meetings. It compiles individual projections from Fed officials on growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates, offering a forward-looking view of how policymakers expect the economy to evolve under current conditions.
GDP forecasts: Shows expected economic growth over the next few years, helping gauge expansion strength or slowdown risks.
Inflation outlook: Includes both headline and core PCE projections, which guide how the Fed evaluates progress toward its 2% target.
Unemployment rate: Reflects expectations for labor market conditions, a key input in balancing growth and inflation policy decisions.
Dot plot: Displays each official’s projected path for interest rates, revealing the distribution of views across the Committee.
Understanding the SEP helps investors interpret how the Fed is thinking about the economy, where policy may be headed, and how changes in growth or inflation expectations can impact valuations, rates, and market positioning.
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Micron revenue almost triples, tops estimates as demand for memory soars

Micron Technology $MU ( ▼ 6.97% ) delivered a blowout Q2 driven by AI memory demand and pricing strength. The stock was -1.0% this week.
EPS: $12.07 vs $9.19 estimate
Revenue: $23.86B vs $19.97B estimate
AI demand: Data center and cloud demand drove record revenue amid tight supply conditions
Margins expansion: Gross margin hit 74.4% as pricing surged across DRAM and NAND
Cash generation: Free cash flow jumped to $6.9B on strong operating leverage
Capex ramp: Spending reached $5.0B to expand capacity for AI-driven demand
Capital return: Dividend raised 30% to $0.15/share with continued share repurchases
Guidance: Q3 revenue guided to $32.75B-$34.25B ($24.3B est.) with ~81% gross margin and EPS of $18.75-$19.55 ($12.03 est.)
For full breakdowns of all earnings, including graphics and all key takeaways. head to the earnings channel in our Discord.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: Micron just put up one of the strongest quarters you will see across semis, and the stock being down -9% since reporting comes down to…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

In Other News
In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

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Edge+ Posts of the Week
We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.
The Edge Report
Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the continued effects on the market from the US/Iran war as well as the precarious situation major indexes were in heading into the week. See the latest full report here:

The Week Ahead
From an earnings and economic standpoint, next week will be quiet one. But with everything going on in the Middle East, we can’t promise it will be a calm week for markets.
Earnings Reports
Earnings season is mostly in the rear view and now get a bit of break in major reports until banks report again in a few weeks. Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

None of the stocks we cover are scheduled to report next week.
Economic Reports
Next week will be quiet on the economic news front, with just composite PMI, initial jobless claims, and UMich consumer sentiment on the docket.
Here is the full calendar of events we will be watching:


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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!
Until next time investors!
Mark & Chris
The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure
This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.


