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Market Talk
Stocks had another tough week on the US/Iran news. Meanwhile, oil jumped another 8%, treasury yields surged, and the dollar traded back above $100.


3 Stories Moving the Market
These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.
Oil Shock and Shipping Disruptions From US Iran War Ripple Through Markets

Escalating conflict between the United States and Iran disrupted energy shipping across the Persian Gulf this week. Commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz faced missile threats, sea mines, and attacks that slowed tanker traffic and lifted oil prices. Governments responded with strategic reserve releases, sanctions adjustments, and emergency shipping policy discussions as investors reassessed energy supply, inflation risk, and geopolitical exposure.
🔑 Key Points
Hormuz Disruption: The Strait of Hormuz carries ~20% of global oil shipments, making disruptions immediately consequential for markets.
Vessel Attacks: Tankers faced drones, missiles, and sea mines near the Gulf shipping corridor, forcing reroutes.
Oil Shock: Crude prices surged above $100 ($119 high) as shipping delays tightened supply expectations and expanded geopolitical risk premiums.
Energy Intervention: The IEA approved coordinated reserve releases while the United States evaluated additional Strategic Petroleum Reserve supply.
Policy Adjustments: Washington issued a sanctions waiver for Russian cargoes already at sea and considered suspending the Jones Act.
👀 What You Need to Know
Energy markets react quickly to disruptions in the Persian Gulf because the region sits at the center of global oil transport. Even partial interruptions tighten supply expectations, raise freight costs, and amplify inflation pressures tied to fuel, food, and industrial inputs. For investors, the conflict introduces a renewed geopolitical risk premium across commodities, shipping, and energy infrastructure. Volatility may persist while shipping safety, military escalation, and policy responses remain uncertain.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: The conflict continues to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and the oil shock is quickly becoming a valuation problem for…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.
Inflation Data Shows Mixed Signals as CPI Stabilizes but Core PCE Remains Elevated

New inflation data released this week delivered a mixed signal on the direction of price pressures across the economy. Consumer price data indicated moderation across goods and housing components, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure showed firmer trends across services categories. The reports arrived as global energy markets turned volatile, leaving policymakers and investors assessing whether recent inflation progress can persist through shifting macro conditions.
🔑 Key Points
CPI Results: February CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.4% YoY, matching forecasts while core CPI increased 0.2%.
PCE Reading: Core PCE increased 0.4% monthly and 3.1% YoY, slightly above expectations near 3.0%.
Services Inflation: Medical care and lodging prices rose, maintaining pressure within labor-driven service categories.
Energy Prices: Energy increased 0.6% monthly as gasoline prices rose following earlier declines.
Policy Signal: Inflation readings near expectations reinforce cautious Federal Reserve policy amid uncertain macro conditions.
👀 What You Need to Know
Inflation data continues to move closer to the Federal Reserve’s long-term objective, though progress remains uneven across categories. Goods inflation continues easing while services prices remain slower to normalize due to wage-driven costs. Energy markets represent the largest variable moving forward as geopolitical tensions push oil prices higher. If energy prices continue rising, inflation progress could slow even as other categories stabilize across the economy.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: Inflation expectations are likely to reprice higher if oil remains dislocated for more than a few weeks. The market entered this shock assuming…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.
📚 Edge-ucation: Understanding the Different U.S. Inflation Reports
The U.S. measures inflation through several reports that track prices at different stages of the economy. The most widely followed are the Consumer Price Index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, and the Producer Price Index. Each report captures a different part of the pricing chain, which is why markets analyze them together when evaluating inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
CPI report: Published by the BLS, CPI measures price changes paid by consumers across a fixed basket of goods and services.
PCE report: Produced by the BEA, PCE tracks prices across a broader range of consumer spending and adjusts weights as consumption patterns shift.
PPI report: Also released by the BLS, PPI measures prices businesses receive for goods and services before reaching consumers.
Why all matter: Together these reports show inflation across producers, consumers, and the broader economy, providing a complete picture of price pressures.
Understanding these reports helps investors interpret inflation data correctly, and evaluate how macro conditions may affect interest rates, valuations, and corporate earnings.
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Oracle stock jumps on Q3 earnings beat, 2027 revenue outlook

Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 3.15% ) delivered a strong Q3 on cloud-driven growth and AI backlog expansion. The stock was +2% this week.
EPS: $1.79 vs $1.70 estimate
Revenue: $17.19B vs $16.92B estimate
Cloud demand: Cloud revenue rose 44% YoY to $8.9B, led by AI infrastructure adoption.
OCI acceleration: Infrastructure revenue surged 84% YoY to $4.9B as AI workloads expanded.
Backlog surge: Remaining performance obligations reached $553B, up 325% YoY on AI contracts.
Capex buildout: Capex expanding toward $50B FY26 to support GPU clusters and data centers.
Guidance: Q4 revenue expected +19% to +21% YoY, EPS guided to $1.96- $2.00, and FY27 revenue outlook raised o $90.0B.
For full breakdowns of all earnings, including graphics and all key takeaways. head to the earnings channel in our Discord.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: Oracle’s results reinforce how quickly the company’s growth profile is shifting as AI infrastructure demand flows through OCI. But the most important signal from the quarter was…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

In Other News
In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

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Edge+ Posts of the Week
We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.
The Edge Report
Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the US/Iran war causing oil prices to sky rocket and its potential effects on the markets. See the latest full report here:
Portfolio Update - March
Every month we share a full access look into our portfolios, including holdings, performance, activity and our watchlists for the upcoming month. You can see both of our portfolios, what moves we made in February, and how we are performing YTD here:

The Week Ahead
While there are several earnings and the Fed’s interest rate decision to watch, the main catalyst will once again be oil prices and the US/Iran war.
Earnings Reports
Earnings season is coming to and but there are still a handful of important names left to report. Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

Overall, 5 of the names we cover are set to report:
Monday 3/16: Dollar Tree
Tuesday 3/17: Lululemon
Wednesday 3/18: Micron
Thursday 3/19: Alibaba and FedEx
Friday 3/20: --

Economic Reports
Next week will be all about the Fed’s interest rate decision on Wednesday.
We also get PPI, initial jobless claims, several housing insights, and a couple of manufacturing reports.
Here is the full calendar of events we will be watching:


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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!
Until next time investors!
Mark & Chris
The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure
This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.


