Weekly Wrap-Up - June 7th, 2025

Trump and Elon: a viral break up

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Market Talk

All three major indexes finished the week higher, with mega cap stocks once again leading the charge.

3 Stories Moving the Market

These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.

Elon Musk and Donald Trump trade blows after their break-up

The once-strategic alliance between Donald Trump and Elon Musk has imploded into a full-scale political and financial feud. The clash triggered a historic 14.3% drop in Tesla stock, erasing $150B in market cap, after Trump threatened to sever federal contracts and Musk fired back with impeachment calls and anti-spending bill campaigns. Tesla stock did rebound 5.5% on Friday.

🔑 Key Points

  • Historic Tesla Selloff: Tesla shares plunged 14.3%, its worst single-day loss ever, after Trump threatened to end subsidies and contracts with Musk-led companies like Tesla and SpaceX.

  • Musk's Political U-Turn: After backing Trump with ~$300M in donations and serving in his cabinet, Musk now calls for his impeachment and is openly attacking the administration’s flagship tax-and-spending bill.

  • SpaceX in the Crosshairs: Musk threatened to decommission the Dragon spacecraft, critical to U.S. space missions, before walking back the comment hours later amid rising political pressure.

  • GOP in a Bind: The feud fractures GOP unity ahead of midterms as Musk’s massive online influence and donor power could complicate Republican campaign dynamics.

  • EV & Tariff Implications: Trump alleges Musk’s true gripe is losing EV tax credits in the bill. Musk counters by highlighting ballooning federal debt and calling the legislation “disgusting pork.”

👀 What You Need to Know

This feud could trigger longer-term risks for Musk-linked stocks, especially if Trump makes good on threats to restrict contracts. Investors should also monitor broader fallout on EV subsidies, space tech spending, and political lobbying in Silicon Valley. The political battle also heightens uncertainty around tariffs and federal debt, all of which have market implications far beyond Tesla.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: The escalating feud between Elon Musk and President Trump poses significant risks to…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

The U.S. economy added 139,000 jobs in May, topping muted expectations despite rising trade tensions and a slower macro backdrop. The unemployment rate held at 4.2%, while wage growth surprised to the upside, up 0.4% month-over-month and 3.9% year-over-year. However, sharp downward revisions to prior months and a nearly 700,000-worker decline in the household survey signal that softness may be bubbling beneath the surface.

🔑 Key Points

  • Solid Headline Beat: May nonfarm payrolls rose by 139,000, above the 125,000 forecast, despite tariff and slowdown concerns.

  • Wages Reaccelerate: Average hourly earnings rose +0.4% MoM and +3.9% YoY, hotter than expected and stoking inflation watch.

  • Health Care Leads Hiring: Health care added 62,000 jobs, well above its 12-month trend, followed by gains in leisure (+48K) and social services (+16K).

  • Workforce Shrinks: Household survey showed a massive -696,000 drop in employment, with full-time jobs falling by -623,000.

  • Fed Cautious but Steady: Stronger wages and job gains may not shift the Fed’s current stance, as policymakers remain focused on tariff-driven inflation risks.

👀 What You Need to Know

Markets welcomed the topline surprise, but the mixed internals, especially workforce shrinkage and downward revisions, hint at growing fragility. With the Fed entering its blackout period ahead of June’s FOMC meeting, investors should expect policy patience but heightened sensitivity to inflation and consumer weakness from tariffs.

📚 Edge-ucation: What are the non farm payrolls and what do they mean for the economy?

Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) measure the number of jobs added or lost in the U.S. economy each month, excluding farm workers and a few other groups. It’s one of the most watched indicators for U.S. economic health.

  • Jobs = Growth: Rising NFP means more people are working and spending, a sign of economic strength.

  • Fed Policy: Strong job growth can delay rate cuts; weak numbers may push the Fed to ease policy.

  • Market Moves: Stocks, bonds, and the dollar often react sharply to big surprises in the report.

NFP is a monthly pulse check on the economy; strong numbers suggest resilience, weak ones raise red flags.

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Amazon Tightens Retail Hiring as It Expands Global Cloud Footprint

Amazon is threading the needle between cost discipline and bold infrastructure investment. Internally, the company has frozen its 2025 hiring budget for the retail division, locking operating expenses (salaries + stock comp) at 2024 levels. At the same time, Amazon is doubling down on growth in cloud and AI with a $5 billion AWS investment in Taiwan and continued expansion in North Carolina and Chile. Together, these updates reflect a strategic balancing act: tighten costs in legacy segments while investing heavily in future drivers like cloud, data, and AI.

🔑 Key Points

  • Retail Hiring Budget Frozen: Amazon’s retail unit will hold headcount-related OpEx flat in 2025, shifting from headcount targets to strict budget-based planning for better financial control and flexibility.

  • Efficiency Focus: The move is part of Jassy’s ongoing margin push, following job cuts, management flattening, and operational reforms.

  • Massive Cloud Investments: AWS just launched a new Asia Pacific Region in Taipei with a $5B commitment, alongside additional builds in North Carolina and Chile, boosting long-term infrastructure capabilities.

  • Cloud and AI as Growth Engines: Analysts expect 8.9% annual revenue growth driven by AWS and AI momentum. Despite higher upfront costs, these initiatives could materially improve long-term profitability.

  • Stock Outlook: Amazon is up 12% over the past month, reflecting strong tech sentiment and macro tailwinds.

👀 What You Need to Know

Amazon is tightening costs where it can (retail hiring) and spending big where it must (cloud, AI). That barbell strategy reflects a maturing tech giant navigating margin discipline while still planting seeds for future growth. Investors should monitor AWS expansion returns closely as they’re central to justifying Amazon’s elevated valuation.

📊 Edge Score: Amazon’s Edge Score clocks in at 53, weighed down by a rich valuation. Future growth metrics show promise, especially with 3-year EPS growth projected near 17–18%, but elevated price multiples suggest investors are already paying up for that upside.

💪 CMG Strength: The CMG Strength Ratio continues to trend higher, now sitting in neutral-to-positive territory, comfortably above the midpoint but not yet signaling overbought conditions. This suggests accumulation is ongoing, but without the kind of froth that typically precedes sharp reversals.

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In Other News

In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

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Edge+ Posts of the Week

We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.

The Edge Report

Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the start of a new month, and the huge week of jobs reports and earnings ahead. See the latest full report here:

Earnings Recap

Every week during earnings season is extremely busy for us here at the Edge as we dive into over 100 reports and provide our members with top tier breakdowns and insights. This week we saw earnings from Broadcom, CrowdStrike, Lululemon, and more. See this week’s recap:

The Week Ahead

It may be a light from an earnings front, but there’s potential for fireworks as inflation will be the main focus next week.

Earnings Reports

This earnings season has been exciting, and while it’s mostly in the rear-view, there are still some big names left to report. Here is the list of names we will be covering:

  • Monday 6/9: --

  • Tuesday 6/10: --

  • Wednesday 6/11: Oracle

  • Thursday 6/12: Adobe

  • Friday 6/13: --

Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

Source: Earnings Whispers

Economic Reports

Next week is all about inflation as we get both the CPI and PPI releases. We also get initial jobless claims and consumer sentiment.

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Disclosure

This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.

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