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Good morning investors!

If this is your first time reading, welcome to The Investor’s Edge — a thriving community of over 22,000 subscribers striving to be better investors with an edge in the market.

Every weekend we publish “The Weekly Wrap-Up” — your ticket to being well informed and staying ahead in the investment game!

This report is designed to help investors of all skill levels break down important stories/topics within the stock market. And best of all, we cut through all of the BS and give you exactly what you need to know in easy to digest, bite sized pieces of content.

Grab your coffee and let’s dive in.

Market Talk

All three major indexes finished the week significantly lower as tariff news sent markets into a tailspin.

3 Stories Moving the Market

These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.

Stocks plunge again after Trump tariffs and China retaliation

Global stocks plunged for a second straight day as President Trump’s sweeping new tariffs and China’s retaliatory 34% levies on U.S. goods triggered fears of a full-scale global trade war and potential recession. 

Investors fled risk assets, sending oil prices to a four-year low and driving demand for safe havens like gold, government bonds, and the Japanese yen.

Traders now expect aggressive interest rate cuts from the Fed, as markets are now pricing in 5 rate cuts this year. Currency markets reflected panic, with the dollar index posting its biggest drop since 2022 before stabilizing. 

Despite strong U.S. job data, markets continued to slide, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures down sharply. It looks like the market is now pricing in a global recession, with little hope for near-term negotiations to ease tensions.

U.S. payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, but unemployment rate increases to 4.2%

March’s jobs report showed stronger-than-expected growth, with nonfarm payrolls rising by 228,000—well above forecasts—offering short-term reassurance that the labor market remains solid.

However, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% as more people entered the workforce, and previous months saw downward revisions. Wage growth was modest, with average hourly earnings up 0.3% for the month and 3.8% year-over-year, the lowest since July 2024.

Despite the solid headline, markets largely shrugged off the data, remaining focused on escalating trade tensions following President Trump’s sweeping tariff announcement.

Fears of a global trade war have triggered sharp market sell-offs, overshadowing labor strength and raising concerns that businesses may soon pull back on hiring.

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Global brokerages raise recession odds; J.P.Morgan sees 60% chance

J.P. Morgan has raised its U.S. and global recession odds to 60%, citing the escalating tariff war as a major drag on business confidence and global growth.

Other firms, including Goldman Sachs, S&P Global, and HSBC, also revised their recession forecasts higher, with equity markets already pricing in a roughly 40% chance of a downturn.

Wall Street has reacted sharply to the trade policy shift, with the S&P 500 down over 8% this year and several brokerages slashing year-end targets.

While tariffs threaten to slow the economy, they’ve also boosted expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, with major firms now forecasting between 75 and 125 basis points in reductions before year-end.

In Other News

In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

• Powell sees tariffs raising inflation and says Fed will wait before further rate moves

• Walmart, Target, Nike stocks drop as sweeping reciprocal tariffs are expected to hike consumer prices

• Traders betting Fed will cut rates at least 4 times this year to bail out economy

• 10-year Treasury yield falls sharply, dropping below 4%, on fear trade war will lead to recession

• Mortgage rates sink on tariffs, but housing costs are still near a record high

• What to know about TikTok’s uncertain future in the US and the people who want to buy it

• Oil falls to lowest level in more than three years amid recession fears, OPEC+ production hikes

• Toy prices could jump 50% following Trump’s tariffs on China, Vietnam

• Nintendo delays Switch 2 pre-orders because of Trump tariffs

• Stellantis idles plants in Mexico and Canada due to tariffs

• Klarna, StubHub delay IPOs as Trump’s tariffs roil markets

Edge+ Posts of the Week

We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.

The Edge Report

Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the implications of the tariffs set to be announced as well as the expected labor market data. See the latest full report here:

The Options Edge Report

This week, we dropped the latest Edge Options Report for our members—packed with actionable insights and options strategies. This week we broke down a play on The Trade Desk following its recent sell-off. See the latest report here:

The Week Ahead

Next week will be all about inflation as two key price reports are due out. Meanwhile, earnings season kicks off with several banks reporting.

Earnings Reports

After a brief reprieve, banks are set to kick off the earnings season next week. Here is the list of names we will be covering:

• Monday 4/7: --

• Tuesday 4/8: --

• Wednesday 4/9: Delta

• Thursday 4/10: --

• Friday 4/11: JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and BlackRock

Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

Economic Reports

Next week is all about inflation as we get both the CPI and PPI reports.

We also get initial jobless claims and consumer sentiment.

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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!

Until next time investors!

Mark & Chris

The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure

This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.