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Market Talk
Stocks had a huge week on the US/Iran ceasefire news, except of course energy stocks as oil prices fell back below $100. Software stocks were also hit hard once again as the SaaS-pocalypse continues.


3 Stories Moving the Market
These are some of the biggest stories from the second half of the week that had an influence on market action.
U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Sparks Global Market Rally, Strait Remains Effectively Closed

A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran, announced Tuesday, sent stocks sharply higher and oil prices sharply lower as investors bet the worst of the energy crisis was over. The agreement hinges on Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway responsible for roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply. Traffic through the strait remains near zero, keeping energy markets on edge heading into formal peace talks this week.
🔑 Key Points
Stocks Surged: The S&P 500 jumped 3.4% and the Nasdaq climbed 4.3% this week following the ceasefire news.
Oil Whipsawed: WTI fell 16.4% Wednesday to $94 a barrel, but climbed back above $100 Thursday.
Strait Still Blocked: Only a handful of tankers have crossed post-ceasefire, against a normal daily flow of 135 vessels.
Gas Prices Elevated: Oil traded near $70 before the war, and prices have not come close to returning there.
Talks Scheduled: U.S. and Iranian delegations will meet in Islamabad this weekend for the first formal peace negotiations.
👀 What You Need to Know
Markets celebrated the ceasefire, but the oil supply problem is not actually solved yet. The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important oil shipping lane, is still barely moving, meaning energy prices could spike again quickly if talks collapse. Higher oil flows directly into gas prices, grocery bills, and shipping costs, squeezing both consumers and corporate profit margins. Stocks jumped on the ceasefire news, but that move could reverse quickly if peace talks fall apart this week.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: The ceasefire rally masked something unusual happening beneath the surface. The S&P 500…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.
Energy Shock Sends Inflation to Its Highest Level in Two Years

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge and the consumer price index both reported above-target readings this week, covering February and March respectively. The U.S.-Iran war drove an unprecedented spike in energy costs, pushing headline inflation sharply higher and complicating the Fed's path forward. Core inflation, while more contained, remains sticky above the Fed's target with no clear signs of improvement.
🔑 Key Points
CPI Spike: March CPI jumped 0.9% in a single month, the largest monthly increase since June 2022, with YoY CPI jumping to 3.3%.
Gasoline Dominates: Gasoline prices surged 21.2% in March, driving nearly three quarters of the monthly increase.
Core Stays Contained: Core CPI rose just 0.2% month over month, keeping the annual rate at 2.6%.
PCE Runs Hot: February core PCE held at 3.0% annually, a full percentage point above the Fed's target.
Income Weakens: Disposable personal income dropped 0.1% in February while consumer spending continued to rise.
👀 What You Need to Know
It’s important to note that the PCE report covers February, before the U.S.-Iran war fully hit energy markets. The March CPI report, however, is the first to capture that impact, and the numbers saw a significant jump. Gasoline alone drove most of the monthly price surge, and those higher energy costs are expected to bleed into everyday goods and services in the months ahead. With the Fed already dealing with sticky core inflation above its 2% target, rate cuts do not look to be coming anytime soon.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: While markets celebrate the ceasefire, inflation data shows the excitement may be short lived. What’s interesting is…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.
📚 Edge-ucation: Understanding the Different U.S. Inflation Reports
The U.S. measures inflation through several reports that track prices at different stages of the economy. The most widely followed are the Consumer Price Index, the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, and the Producer Price Index. Each report captures a different part of the pricing chain, which is why markets analyze them together when evaluating inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy expectations.
CPI report: Published by the BLS, CPI measures price changes paid by consumers across a fixed basket of goods and services.
PCE report: Produced by the BEA, PCE tracks prices across a broader range of consumer spending and adjusts weights as consumption patterns shift.
PPI report: Also released by the BLS, PPI measures prices businesses receive for goods and services before reaching consumers.
Why all matter: Together these reports show inflation across producers, consumers, and the broader economy, providing a complete picture of price pressures.
Understanding these reports helps investors interpret inflation data correctly, and evaluate how macro conditions may affect interest rates, valuations, and corporate earnings.
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Bessent and Powell Summon Bank CEOs Over AI Cybersecurity Threat

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell called an urgent meeting Tuesday at Treasury headquarters in Washington with the heads of the country's largest banks. The gathering was prompted by Anthropic's newly released AI model, known as Mythos, which regulators say could expose serious vulnerabilities across major software systems. Officials urged bank leaders to review their current defenses and prepare for a new type of cyber threat tied to advancing AI capabilities.
🔑 Key Points
The Meeting: Bessent and Powell summoned top bank CEOs to Treasury headquarters on Tuesday.
The Concern: Anthropic's Mythos model can identify and exploit unknown software vulnerabilities.
Limited Access: Mythos was released to roughly 40 select technology companies, it was not released to the public.
Glasswing Project: Anthropic launched a program giving select firms early access to prepare defenses.
Stocks Fell: Cybersecurity stocks fell following the news, with Cloudflare down 24.3%, CrowdStrike falling 16.7%, and Palo Alto lower by 14.0%.
👀 What You Need to Know
Bessent and Powell calling an emergency meeting with bank executives is not something that happens often, and markets took notice immediately. Anthropic's new Mythos model has now moved AI cybersecurity risk from a future concern to an active regulatory priority. Banks and cybersecurity firms left outside of Anthropic's select access program face the greatest near-term uncertainty as the situation continues to develop. Investors across financial and technology sectors will be watching closely for any follow-up from regulators.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: The Mythos disclosure has cracked open a valuation debate that the cybersecurity sector was already losing before this week. CrowdStrike entered 2026 trading…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

In Other News
In this section, we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

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Edge+ Posts of the Week
We continue to push out more and more content every week to give investors that edge. Here are the posts Investor’s Edge+ subscribers received this week.
The Edge Report
Mondays are for the investors. Every Monday morning we share exactly what we’re watching in the week ahead, how we’re positioning, and even share a sneak peek into our systems and models. This week we discussed the deadline from Trump regarding attacks on Iran, the upcoming inflation reports, and our gameplan for the week. See the latest full report here:
Edge Quick Picks
Every month we break down 5 stocks that we believe are attractive from a valuation and momentum perspective right now. Here’s a look at the 5 stocks we are buying in April:
Shallow Dive [Video] - Nvidia
Our latest addition to the Edge+ perks is video shallow dives. This week’s first ever video Shallow Dive focused on Nvidia. See our thoughts on the company, our valuation models, price targets for 2026, and quick analysis. We’ve unlocked the first video for every one to see. You can see the full shallow dive here:

The Week Ahead
While the start of earnings season will certainly be a major catalyst next week, the major market mover will once again be oil prices and the US/Iran war.
Earnings Reports
Earnings season kicks off next week with banks, Taiwan Semi, Netflix, and more slated to report. Here is the full calendar of scheduled earnings releases:

Overall, 11 of the names we cover are set to report:
Monday 4/13: Goldman Sachs
Tuesday 4/14: JPMorgan, Johnson & Johnson, and BlackRock
Wednesday 4/15: Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley
Thursday 4/16: Taiwan Semi, Netflix, Pepsico, Abbott Labs, and Prologis
Friday 4/17: --

Economic Reports
Next week is relatively quiet from an economic standpoint, though Tuesday’s PPI report will be one to watch.
We also get initial jobless claims, several housing insights, and a couple of manufacturing reports.
Here is the full calendar of events we will be watching:


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Thank you for reading this edition of the Weekly Wrap-Up. Have a great weekend!
Until next time investors!
Mark & Chris
The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure
This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.

