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Good morning investors!

If this is your first time reading, welcome to The Investor’s Edge — a thriving community of over 24,000 subscribers striving to be better investors with an edge in the market.

Every Wednesday we publish “The Mid-Week Wrap-Up” — your ticket to being well informed and staying ahead in the investment game!

This report is designed to help investors of all skill levels break down important stories/topics within the stock market. And best of all, we cut through all of the BS and give you exactly what you need to know in easy to digest, bite sized pieces of content.

This article is designed to truly give you that EDGE in the day ahead!

Grab your afternoon pick me up and let’s dive in.

Market Talk

Markets are mixed to start the week after the Fed’s rate decision and fears of the U.S. entering a war with Iran.

3 Stories Moving the Market

These are some of the biggest stories so far this week that are having an influence on market action.

Trump Issues ‘Ultimate Ultimatum’ as Iran Warns of U.S. Strike Retaliation

President Trump on Wednesday confirmed he gave Iran an “ultimate ultimatum” as he weighs a potential U.S. military strike in support of Israel’s campaign. The U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem began organizing evacuations for Americans, signaling growing fears of escalation. Trump’s remarks follow Iranian threats of “irreparable damage” if the U.S. intervenes, with tensions surging after confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. As diplomatic options narrow, the risk of a full-blown regional war is rising.

🔑 Key Points

• Trump signals action: Trump said “nobody knows” what he’ll do next but warned that Iran is “in trouble” and eager to negotiate.

• Evacuations begin: The U.S. Embassy is preparing flights and cruise ships to help Americans leave Israel amid escalating violence.

• Khamenei pushes back: Iran’s leader warned of devastating consequences if the U.S. enters militarily, calling Trump’s threats “cowardly.”

• Nuclear facilities struck: Israel hit two Iranian centrifuge sites, according to the IAEA, intensifying fears of direct conflict.

• Markets respond: Oil prices are up 9%, and gold is climbing as investors rotate into safe havens on Middle East war risk.

👀 What You Need to Know

This is the closest the U.S. has come to directly entering the Israel-Iran conflict, and Trump is intentionally keeping markets and enemies guessing. Iran’s threat of “irreparable damage” raises the cost of any misstep, and evacuations show the White House is preparing for a worst-case scenario. If the U.S. joins in, expect an immediate surge in oil, safe-haven buying, and fresh inflation concerns.

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Flags Slower Growth and Sticky Inflation

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%–4.50% on Wednesday and reaffirmed expectations for two cuts in 2025, despite weaker growth projections and persistent inflation. The updated dot plot showed widening division among policymakers with seven members now expecting no cuts this year. Powell emphasized patience, citing fading but still-elevated uncertainty, even as economic data points to a softening labor market and weaker consumer activity.

🔑 Key Points

• Fed splits emerge: Seven officials now expect no rate cuts in 2025, signaling deep division on the path forward.

• Growth cut, inflation sticky: 2025 GDP forecast falls to 1.4% while core PCE rises to 3.1%, pointing to stagflation risk.

• Powell urges patience: The Fed chair says the committee can wait for more data, despite Trump’s loud pressure to ease.

• Tariffs complicate policy: Officials warn tariffs may stoke inflation even as retail sales and job data weaken.

• Markets tread water: Equities were flat post-Fed, but gold and bonds reflect rising uncertainty over global risks.

👀 What You Need to Know

The Fed is walking a narrowing policy tightrope. Inflation remains too high for comfort, yet cracks in consumer strength and labor markets are emerging. With Powell emphasizing caution, it’s clear that only a decisive break in data, either softer inflation or sharper job losses, will drive the next move. Meanwhile, Trump’s renewed pressure for cuts, rising Treasury costs, and geopolitical risks from the Middle East and China are all adding complexity.

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Solar Stocks Collapse as Senate Bill Slashes Tax Incentives

Solar stocks plunged this week after the U.S. Senate released its version of President Trump’s tax and spending bill, which proposes a full phaseout of residential and utility-scale solar tax credits by 2028. Enphase $ENPH ( ▼ 1.46% ) fell -25%, SolarEdge $SEDG ( ▼ 2.71% ) -35%, and Sunrun $RUN ( ▲ 1.63% ) over -40% as markets reacted sharply. The proposed changes would undercut a core provision of Biden’s 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, eliminating the affordability edge that made solar attractive to homeowners.

🔑 Key Points

• Tax Credit Rollbacks: Senate bill proposes phasing out all solar and wind tax credits by 2028, with some expiring just 180 days post-passage.

• Solar Stocks Slammed: Sunrun dropped 40%, SolarEdge 35%, and Enphase 25% on fears the new rules could crush residential solar demand.

• Loophole Watch: JP Morgan notes Sunrun could still qualify via power-purchase agreements, offering a potential (but uncertain) workaround.

• Winners Emerge: Nuclear, geothermal, and battery storage would retain or expand credits—benefiting firms like Constellation and Fluence.

• No China Ban, Yet: Senate softened the bill’s China-related restrictions vs. the House version, but scrutiny of foreign solar inputs remains.

👀 What You Need to Know

The proposed Senate bill delivers a severe blow to solar investors, especially in the residential space where incentives drive adoption. The worst-case scenario of the House bill may be avoided, but the Senate version still strips solar of its biggest competitive edge, its cost advantage. With solar tax credits potentially ending in under a year, the market is repricing business models that were heavily reliant on federal support.

In Other News

In this section we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.

• Trump, Starmer say US-UK trade deal finalized

• Senate passes GENIUS stablecoin bill, giving crypto industry first major legislative win

• TSMC’s Arizona Plant Successfully Ships First Batch Of NVIDIA, AMD & Apple Chip Wafers

• U.S. Steel ceases trading on the NYSE as Japan’s Nippon finalizes takeover

• Amazon extends Prime Day to four days, starting July 8

• AI will shrink Amazon’s workforce in the coming years, CEO Jassy says

• Amazon to invest $13 billion in Australia's data center infrastructure over five years

• Google’s Waymo seen capturing 10% of U.S. rideshare trips by 2030

• Sam Altman says Meta offered OpenAI staff $100 million bonuses, as Mark Zuckerberg ramps up AI poaching efforts

• OpenAI wins $200 million U.S. defense contract

• Oracle cloud to add xAI's Grok 3 model to lineup for corporate customers

• Trump says he'll extend TikTok sale deadline for third time

• Roku Stock Rallies on Amazon Ads Partnership

• Eli Lilly to Acquire Verve Therapeutics for Up to $1.3 Billion

• Lilly to offer highest doses of weight-loss drug Zepbound on website

The Second Half

With the holiday tomorrow and no major reports on Friday, the rest of the week should be pretty quiet from a reports standpoint. We can’t make any promises on the global news front.

Earnings Reports

There were no major earnings this week. Here is the calendar of earnings releases scheduled for the rest of the week:

Economic Reports

The major reports of the week are behind us, but we still get the empire manufacturing data on Friday. Here is the full calendar of events scheduled for the remainder of the week:

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Thank you for reading this edition of the Mid-Week Wrap-Up.

Until next time investors!

Mark & Chris

The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure

This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.