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Good morning investors!
If this is your first time reading, welcome to The Investor’s Edge — a thriving community of over 26,000 subscribers striving to be better investors with an edge in the market.
Every Wednesday we publish “The Mid-Week Wrap-Up” — your ticket to being well informed and staying ahead in the investment game!
This report is designed to help investors of all skill levels break down important stories/topics within the stock market. And best of all, we cut through all of the BS and give you exactly what you need to know in easy to digest, bite sized pieces of content.
This article is designed to truly give you that EDGE in the day ahead!
Grab your afternoon pick me up and let’s dive in.
Market Talk
The major indexes are all lower this week as the hopes of a Santa rally are fading away.
3 Stories Moving the Market
These are some of the biggest stories so far this week that are having an influence on market action.
Amazon in talks to invest around $10 billion in OpenAI
OpenAI is in discussions with Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 0.26% ) regarding a potential investment exceeding $10 billion and expanded use of AWS AI chips. The talks follow OpenAI’s October restructuring, which loosened Microsoft compute exclusivity and enabled broader capital raising and third party partnerships. Amazon’s interest builds on its $38 billion cloud contract with OpenAI and growing demand for proprietary AI infrastructure across hyperscale providers.
🔑 Key Points
Investment talks Potential Amazon investment could exceed $10 billion, reflecting OpenAI’s accelerating capital needs for compute expansion.
Compute flexibility OpenAI no longer grants Microsoft first refusal rights, allowing diversified cloud suppliers and chip architectures.
AWS silicon Amazon plans broader Trainium adoption, positioning proprietary chips against Nvidia and Google accelerators.
Capital intensity OpenAI has committed over $1.4 trillion to infrastructure, including capacity deals with multiple chipmakers.
Competitive dynamics Amazon expands AI exposure beyond Anthropic, mirroring Microsoft/Nvidia investments across foundational model developers.
👀 What You Need to Know
This potential partnership underscores escalating compute scarcity as frontier model training concentrates demand among hyperscale cloud providers. For OpenAI, supplier diversification reduces reliance risks but raises execution complexity across hardware, software, and commercial integration. For Amazon, deeper alignment could improve internal chip economics while strengthening AWS relevance in large model workloads.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: For Amazon, this is a deliberate attempt to take back control of AWS’s AI economics. AWS growth slowed to ~13% YoY last quarter while…upgrade to Edge+ to read the full Edge Takeaway.
US Payrolls Rebound in November, Unemployment Rises as Shutdown Distorts Labor Data
November nonfarm payrolls rose 64,000, modestly beating expectations, while October payrolls fell 105,000 following delayed government layoffs. The unemployment rate increased to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, alongside broader underemployment rising to 8.7%. Data were delayed and partially disrupted by the government shutdown, complicating interpretation as the Federal Reserve evaluates labor market cooling against still elevated inflation risks.
🔑 Key Points
Payroll rebound: November payrolls rose 64,000, beating estimates, following October’s revised 105,000 decline driven by government layoffs.
Unemployment rise: Unemployment increased to 4.6%, highest since 2021, while broader underemployment climbed to 8.7%.
Sector concentration: Health care added 46,000 jobs, over 70% of gains, while construction added 28,000 positions.
Government drag: Government employment fell 162,000 in October and declined another 6,000 in November.
Wage cooling: Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% monthly and 3.5% annually, the slowest pace since 2021.
👀 What You Need to Know
The labor market is slowing, but the signal is messy because the shutdown disrupted the data. Hiring remains limited, job losses are still contained, and most gains came from health care rather than broad-based growth. The unemployment rate rising matters because it can pressure consumer spending and confidence if it persists. Wage growth cooling supports disinflation but also reflects weaker labor leverage. The next few reports should matter more for confirming whether softness is spreading beyond the sectors driving job gains.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: The latest payrolls report reinforces a Federal Reserve that expects policy to remain restrictive well into 2026. This is consistent with last week’s dot plot, where…upgrade to Edge+ to read the full Edge Takeaway.
📚 Edge-ucation: What Is the Nonfarm Payrolls Report?
The nonfarm payrolls report is a monthly snapshot of U.S. labor market conditions released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It measures how many jobs were added or lost across most industries, excluding farm workers, private households, and some nonprofit roles. Because it captures employment, wages, and participation, it is one of the most influential data releases for markets and policymakers.
Job growth signal: Payroll changes show whether hiring demand is accelerating or slowing across the broader economy, not just individual sectors.
Unemployment context: The report combines establishment data with a household survey to calculate unemployment and labor force participation rates.
Wage pressure insight: Average hourly earnings indicate whether labor costs are rising fast enough to influence inflation and profit margins.
Policy relevance: The Federal Reserve uses payroll trends to assess whether the labor market is tightening or cooling relative to inflation goals.
Nonfarm payrolls matter because they shape expectations for economic growth, inflation, and interest rates, often driving market reactions far beyond the labor market itself.
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Ford takes $19.5B restructuring charge, pivots EV strategy toward hybrids
Ford $F ( ▲ 1.13% ) said it will record about $19.5B of special items tied to restructuring priorities and scaling back all electric investments. The decision comes amid slower EV demand, changing incentives, and heightened capital discipline spreading across global auto manufacturers today. Management also updated profitability expectations while redirecting focus toward hybrids, smaller electric platforms, and core truck and commercial segments globally.
🔑 Key Points
Charge breakdown: $19.5B total includes $8.5B EV write downs and non cash accounting adjustments primarily.
Cash impact: $5.5B of cash charges expected through 2027 with majority incurred during 2026 period.
Guidance change: Adjusted EBIT outlook raised to about $7B for 2025 after October reduction range.
EV strategy: Ford shifts capital toward hybrids, plug in models, smaller EVs, and away from large trucks.
Volume targets: Company expects 50% of global volume electrified by 2030, up from 17% levels.
👀 What You Need to Know
Ford’s reset reflects weaker high end EV demand, changing incentives, and tighter capital discipline across global auto markets. Large noncash charges will pressure near term earnings, but cash outlays and execution timing shape balance sheet flexibility. The pivot toward hybrids and EREVs signals a slower electrification curve aligned with current consumer price sensitivity. Execution risk remains as platform transitions, policy uncertainty, and competitive pricing pressure margins over the next few years.
🔐 Edge Takeaway: Ford’s $19.5B restructuring reflects a clear reset for the company. This move caps Ford’s EV growth ambition, but it…upgrade to Edge+ to read the full Edge Takeaway, including the Edge score and CMG Strength Ratio.
In Other News
In this section we'll be curating a selection of news headlines we think you'll find interesting. If a topic catches your eye, click the provided links to read more about it.
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The Second Half
It should be an exciting end to the week as we get a key name in the semiconductor space reporting, as well as the all-important CPI inflation report tomorrow.
Earnings Reports
We get 3 major reports to end the week, with Micron kicking it off tonight, along with two key names that will give insights into the consumer and overall economy tomorrow. Here are the list of names we will be watching:
Wednesday 12/17: Micron
Thursday 12/18: Nike and FedEx
Friday 12/19: --
Here is the calendar of earnings releases scheduled for the rest of the week:
Source: Earnings Whisper
Economic Reports
Tomorrow’s CPI report will be in focus for the entire market, as well as the Fed, and could dictate price action into year end.
We also get initial jobless claims, existing home sales and consumer sentiment to round out the week.
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Thank you for reading this edition of the Mid-Week Wrap-Up.
Until next time investors!
Mark & Chris
The Investor’s Edge
Disclosure
This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.
