Earnings Recap - Week ending July 18th, 2025

Taiwan Semi, Netflix, JPMorgan, and more

Good morning investors!

During the ever important earnings season, we publish our “Earnings Recap” — an in-depth summary of the earnings reports for stocks that we cover on a regular basis.

This earnings season is mostly in the rear-view mirror but there were still a couple of big names that we cover that reported this week.

Let’s dive in.

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM)

TSMC $TSM ( ▼ 2.16% ) reported a blockbuster quarter, powered by unrelenting demand for AI and high-performance computing chips. The company saw strong momentum across its most advanced nodes and continued to widen its lead in cutting-edge manufacturing. With robust cash flow and bullish Q3 guidance, TSMC is cementing its position at the heart of the global AI supply chain.

🔑 Key Points

  • Revenue Beat: Q2 revenue hit $30.07B (+44% YoY), edging out the $30.04B estimate and reflecting broad-based strength in HPC and mobile demand.

  • Earnings Surge: EPS of $2.47 beat by $0.09, with operating income rising 71% YoY to $14.9B and net profit margin expanding to 42.7%.

  • HPC Dominance: HPC revenue surged 67% YoY to $18.0B, making up 60% of platform sales, driven by AI compute and leading-edge process adoption.

  • Cash Engine: Operating cash flow reached $16.0B (+39% YoY), while free cash flow improved to $6.4B despite $9.6B in capex.

  • Dividend Update: The company declared a $0.16/share dividend), with a Sept. 16 ex-date and Oct. 9 payment.

👀 What You Need to Know

TSMC’s Q2 results reinforce its undisputed leadership at the bleeding edge of semiconductor manufacturing. While demand across AI, HPC, and advanced smartphones remains elevated, the company’s margin performance and rising ROE (now 34.8%) are the real story. TSMC is capturing a disproportionate share of AI infrastructure spend, and the Q3 outlook, with up to $33B in revenue and 47.5% operating margins, suggests this trend is not slowing.

TSM shares are +6.6% so far this week.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: TSMC is proving that it is the AI supply chain. With…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

JPMorgan (JPM)

JPMorgan $JPM ( ▲ 0.71% ) delivered a clean beat in Q2 despite year-over-year declines, highlighting the resilience of its diversified business model. Trading, card spending, and AUM growth helped offset the tough comp from last year’s Visa-related boost. Management raised full-year guidance and returned over $7B to shareholders, signaling confidence in both macro stability and the firm’s capital strength.

🔑 Key Points

  • Headline Beat, Underlying Decline: Revenue hit $45.68B (−10% YoY) and EPS $5.24 (−14% YoY), but both beat consensus by wide margins.

  • Consumer Strength Continues: Consumer Banking posted $18.9B in revenue, up 7% YoY on card income, higher balances, and deposit growth.

  • Markets Surge: FICC revenue rose 15% YoY to $5.7B, and Commercial & IB revenue grew 9% YoY to $19.5B on trading and advisory strength.

  • Flat Expenses, Lower Provisions: Non-interest expenses held flat YoY at $23.8B, while credit provisions fell 7% to $2.9B.

  • Guidance Raised: FY net interest income raised to $95.5B and expense outlook lifted to $95.5B from $95.0B.

👀 What You Need to Know

Despite headline declines, JPMorgan’s Q2 print was operationally solid and confirmed its market leadership. Trading revenue surged, consumer credit remained healthy, and the bank increased full-year guidance, rare among peers this season. With AUM up 18% to $4.3T, and total deposits and loans both rising 5–6% YoY, JPM’s core engine is still humming. This wasn’t a breakout quarter, but it reinforces JPM as the quality anchor in large-cap financials, especially with capital return reaccelerating and a 15% CET1 buffer in place.

JPM shares are +1.1% so far this week.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: JPM’s Q2 print proved it can grow earnings and defend margins even as…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

Netflix (NFLX)

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 4.77% ) delivered another high-powered quarter as strong global engagement and accelerating ad momentum pushed results above expectations. A blockbuster content lineup combined with disciplined cost management to drive robust profit growth and cash generation. With its ad platform now fully deployed and a loaded second-half slate, Netflix is reinforcing its leadership in the streaming landscape.

🔑 Key Points

  • Top-Line Beat: Revenue hit $11.08B (+16% YoY), narrowly topping estimates as FX gains and late-quarter sub growth added upside.

  • Earnings Power: EPS of $7.19 crushed the $7.07 estimate (+1.7%), driven by margin expansion and disciplined spending.

  • Operating Strength: Operating margin rose 690bps to 34.1% as expense growth (+5% YoY) lagged revenue gains.

  • Cash Flow Machine: Free cash flow surged to $2.3B (+87% YoY), enabling $1.6B in share buybacks and a raised FY FCF outlook.

  • Global Momentum: Every region grew revenue YoY on a constant currency basis; APAC (+24%) and EMEA (+18%) led the way.

👀 What You Need to Know

Netflix is now operating at full throttle with record margins, accelerating cash flow, and increasing clarity on the ad tier’s contribution. The newly raised FY25 revenue guide ($44.8B–$45.2B) and 30% operating margin target point to sustained monetization gains from both pricing and engagement. Content performance, especially Squid Game S3 and international hits, continues to drive global resonance. With the ads platform fully deployed and another blockbuster slate ahead, the setup heading into 2H25 is as strong as it’s been since pre-pandemic highs.

NFLX shares are -0.2% so far this week.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: Netflix executed well with record 34.1% margins and strong free cash flow, but with…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)

Johnson & Johnson $JNJ ( ▲ 0.73% ) reported Q2 2025 revenue of $23.74B, up 6% YoY and ahead of estimates by nearly $900M. EPS came in at $2.77, also topping expectations despite a modest YoY decline. Strength in oncology and MedTech more than offset continued Stelara erosion, while easing tariff pressure allowed the company to lift full-year guidance. Free cash flow dipped, but overall profitability remained healthy.

🔑 Key Points

  • Revenue Growth Beat: Revenue grew +6% YoY to $23.74B, driven by 8% U.S. sales growth and MedTech momentum.

  • EPS Holds Firm: Adjusted EPS of $2.77 beat by 3%, but fell 2% YoY due to Stelara patent losses and pipeline dilution.

  • Oncology Drives Pharma: Oncology revenue jumped 24% to $6.3B, led by strong Darzalex performance.

  • Free Cash Flow Dip: FCF fell 17% YoY to $6.2B, though full-year guidance implies stabilization in H2.

  • Guidance Raised: FY revenue now guided to $93.2B–$93.6B (up $2B); EPS raised to $10.80–$10.90.

👀 What You Need to Know

J&J’s quarter was defined by operational strength and strategic tailwinds. Oncology and MedTech provided the spark, while tariff relief shaved expected costs in half, freeing margin headroom. Though Stelara remains a drag, management showed confidence by lifting full-year revenue and EPS targets. The FCF decline is worth watching, but capital discipline and pipeline execution are keeping the long-term thesis intact. Litigation remains a looming variable, but the core business is executing well.

JNJ shares are +3.9% so far this week.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: J&J’s Q2 offered just enough to shift sentiment, not because the setup suddenly got exciting, but because…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

Bank of America (BAC)

Bank of America $BAC ( ▲ 0.42% ) posted a mixed Q2, with solid growth in lending, trading, and capital returns, but a revenue miss holding back sentiment. EPS came in ahead of expectations thanks to firm net interest income and disciplined credit. Despite rising expenses and modest CET1 slippage, the bank’s ability to grow across segments signals operational resilience.

🔑 Key Points

  • EPS Beat Despite Revenue Miss: EPS of $0.89 beat by 3.5%, while revenue of $26.46B missed by 0.9% vs. consensus.

  • Strong NII and Loan Growth: Net interest income rose 7% YoY to $14.7B, backed by 9% growth in average loans.

  • Consumer & Wealth Momentum: Consumer revenue hit $10.8B (+6%), and wealth management grew 7% on asset flows and fees.

  • Markets Strength, IB Weakness: FICC revenue rose 16%, while investment banking fees stayed soft, pressuring Global Banking.

  • Capital Return Accelerates: $5.3B in buybacks and an 8% dividend hike, though CET1 dipped 40bps to 11.5%.

👀 What You Need to Know

Bank of America showed consistent core strength in Q2, with loan growth, stable credit, and trading gains driving results. Still, expense pressure and weak investment banking dragged on operating leverage, and CET1 dipped for a second straight quarter. Consumer trends remained healthy, but revenue growth lagged peers. Management’s 8% dividend hike reinforces confidence, but BAC needs better fee momentum or sharper cost control to re-rate meaningfully.

BAC shares are +0.6% so far this week.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: Bank of America just delivered its cleanest quarter in over a year, but with…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

Pepsico (PEP)

PepsiCo $PEP ( ▼ 0.81% ) delivered a solid quarter as strong snack and beverage sales overseas helped results come in better than expected. While a big one-time charge dragged down GAAP earnings, the underlying business held up well. With international demand steady, FX pressures easing, and full-year guidance unchanged, investors came away more confident in PepsiCo’s ability to navigate a tough consumer environment.

🔑 Key Points

  • Revenue Beat: Sales rose 1% YoY to $22.73B, beating estimates by 2%, with EMEA up 8% and LatAm down 7%.

  • EPS Hit, Core Save: GAAP EPS plunged 59% to $0.92; core EPS of $2.12 beat by 4.4% but fell 7% YoY.

  • Brand Impairments: PepsiCo took a $1.86B write-down tied to underperforming brands, dragging GAAP profit margins to 5.6%.

  • Cash Flow Weakness: Free cash flow was -$511M, a 268% decline YoY, driven by M&A and capex.

  • Capital Return Intact: FY25 payout of $8.6B remains on track, including $494M in Q2 buybacks.

👀 What You Need to Know

PepsiCo’s Q2 wasn’t perfect, but it showed signs of improvement where it counts. EMEA and franchise beverages posted strong growth, helping the company offset continued flatness in North America. While impairments hit GAAP results, the underlying performance was solid, and core margins remained stable. Investors appear comfortable with the outlook as FX headwinds ease and cash return plans remain intact. The setup into the back half of the year looks steady, with execution abroad carrying the load.

PEP shares are +7.5% so far this week.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: PepsiCo came into this quarter as a beaten-down consumer staple and this print…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

Prologis (PLD)

Prologis $PLD ( ▼ 0.4% ) delivered a strong Q2 with 9% YoY Core FFO growth and healthy leasing momentum. While GAAP earnings fell sharply due to lower asset sales and FX losses, the underlying operations remained solid. Management raised full-year Core FFO guidance and highlighted record leasing demand across global logistics hubs.

🔑 Key Points

  • Core FFO Beat: Core FFO per share rose to $1.46, up 9% YoY and slightly above estimates.

  • Net Income Drop: GAAP EPS fell 34% to $0.61 on fewer real estate gains and FX headwinds.

  • Rent Spread Surge: Net effective rent change jumped 53.4%, with 4.9% same-store NOI growth.

  • Development Reaccelerates: New starts hit $846M, with 63% build-to-suit and a 6.3% yield.

  • Occupancy Steady: Average occupancy held near 95%, with leasing pipeline at record highs.

👀 What You Need to Know

Prologis continues to show operational strength in a tough macro backdrop. The sharp decline in net income stemmed from lower asset gains and FX marks. Meanwhile, record-high leasing intent and rising rent spreads signal demand is healthy. With development back online and Core FFO trending above guidance, PLD looks better positioned than most REIT peers. This was a clean beat where it counts.

PLD shares are +0.3% so far this week.

🔐 Edge Takeaway: Prologis delivered what long-term investors needed, but with…upgrade to Edge+ to read the Full Edge Takeaway.

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The Investor’s Edge

Disclosure

This is not investing advice. It is very important that you do your own research and make investments based on your own personal circumstances, preferences, goals and risk tolerance.

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